新型电力系统下综合能源系统的投资决策模型  

Investment Decision Model for Comprehensive Energy System Under New Power System

作　　者：谭青博 潘伟 王竹宁 谭彩霞 TAN Qingbo;PAN Wei;WANG Zhuning;TAN Caixia(Beijing Xinyuan Smart Internet Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102206,China;State Grid Jiangsu Liyang Power Supply Company,Liyang 213300,China;School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]北京新源智慧互联科技有限公司,北京102206 [2]国网溧阳市供电公司,江苏溧阳213300 [3]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京102206 [4]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《智慧电力》2023年第8期46-52,共7页Smart Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72174062)。

摘　　要：在新型电力系统下,以清洁能源为主体的综合能源系统成为“双碳”目标实现重点。提出了新型电力系统下综合能源系统的投资决策模型。首先,通过综合能源系统的双层优化配置模型,对综合能源系统中的设备选型定容。其次,构建了综合能源系统投资决策评估指标,并基于改进的Shapley值法对不同主体的收益进行分配。最后,选取某一综合能源系统进行实证分析。结果表明,一方面计及风电、光伏、需求响应的不确定分析,能够降低系统运行的风险,提高收益;另一方面改进的Shapley值法能够充分反映各主体的角色定位,使得收益分配更加科学有效。In the new power system,the comprehensive energy system with clean energy as the main body has become the focus of realizing carbon peak&carbon neutrality.An investment decision-making model for comprehensive energy system under new power system is proposed.Firstly,through the double-layer optimization configuration model of integrated energy system,the equipment in integrated energy system is selected and rated.Further,the comprehensive energy system investment decision-making evaluation index is constructed,and the income of different subjects is distributed based on the improved Shapley value method.Finally,a comprehensive energy system is selected for empirical analysis.The results show that on the one hand,the proposed model can reduce the risk of system operation and improve the income by taking into account the uncertainty analysis of wind power,PV and demand response;on the other hand,the improved Shapley value method can fully reflect the role orientation of each subject,making the income distribution more scientific and effective.

关 键 词：新型电力系统 综合能源系统 投资决策 改进Shapley 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]