中国养老保险全国统筹调剂政策的可持续性分析  

Sustainability of China’s National Coordination Policy for Pension Insurance and Adjustment Fund

作　　者：李殊琦[1] 吴万宗 LI Shu-qi;WU Wan-zong(School of Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,Hubei,China;School of Business,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225009,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学管理学院,武汉430070 [2]扬州大学商学院,江苏扬州225009

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第3期45-54,共10页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology:Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：武汉理工大学自主创新基金重点项目“基于评级机构的债券市场资源配置效率研究”(2020VI034)。

摘　　要：2022年1月我国开始实施养老保险全国统筹政策,执行全国统筹调剂资金模式,即存有当期结余的省份上缴当期结余形成全国统筹调剂资金,用于补贴出现当期缺口的省份。基于上述背景,运用精算模型研究发现养老保险全国统筹政策保持可持续性的情况为:当不引入任何政策干预,全国统筹政策仅可实施至2025年;如果渐进式延迟退休年龄并采用“小步前行”的方案,该政策仍可实施至2025年;如果引入地方政府保费征缴激励机制,征缴率可提高3.39%,该政策可实施至2027年;如果给予养老保险基金财政补贴,即每征缴1元,给予0.2464元财政补贴,该政策可实施至2031年;如果实施上述所有改革,该政策至少可实施至2035年。综上所述,为保证养老保险全国统筹政策在中长期内可持续发展,应尽快实施渐进式延迟退休年龄政策,并引入保费征缴激励机制且给予养老保险基金财政补贴。In January 2022,China implemented the national coordination policy for pension insurance and adjustment fund model,which means that provinces with current balances turn in the surplus to national adjustment funds,which are used to subsidize provinces with current deficits.Using actuarial models,it was found that the sustainability of the national pooling policy for pension insurance can only be implemented until 2025 without introducing any policy intervention;If the retirement age is gradually delayed and a“small step forward”plan is adopted,this policy can still be implemented until 2025;If a local government premium collection incentive mechanism is introduced,the collection rate can be increased by 3.39%,and this policy can be implemented until 2027;If a financial subsidy of 0.2464 yuan is given to the pension insurance fund for every 1 yuan collected,this policy can be implemented until 2031;If all the above reforms are implemented,this policy can be implemented until at least 2035.In summary,to ensure the sustainable development of the national pooling policy for pension insurance in long term,it is necessary to implement a gradual delay in retirement age policy as soon as possible,introduce a premium collection incentive mechanism,and provide financial subsidies to the pension insurance fund.

关 键 词：养老保险 全国统筹 可持续性 政策组合 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理] F812.44[社会学]