资产配置经验法则视角下长期失业风险带来的潜在福利损失研究  

Study on Latent Welfare Loss Caused by Chronic Unemployment Risk Based on Empirical Law of Asset Allocation

作　　者：王云多[1] WANG Yunduo

机构地区：[1]黑龙江大学经济与工商管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《江汉大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第4期98-108,127,128,共13页Journal of Jianghan University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“生育率下降与预期寿命延长双重约束下养老保险制度可持续性研究”(16BRK016);黑龙江省社会科学规划基金“人口老龄化与城市化双重约束下黑龙江省城乡居民养老保险待遇适度水平研究”(22RKB166)。

摘　　要：受经济下行压力影响,个人潜在失业风险增加。为规避失业风险带给个人的不利影响,需要个人对传统理财方式做出调整,规划生命周期中的资产配置,但是这并不一定意味着年轻时需要将资产大量投资于股票。研究通过构建考虑长期失业风险的生命周期模型,探究长期失业风险经由资产配置变动对一生福利损失的影响。研究结果表明,长期失业风险会导致个人未来收入前景永久性下降,当考虑长期失业后人力资本贬值的风险对劳动力市场的影响时,它们会带来相当大的福利损失(占年消费总额的2.92%~8.62%),这些福利损失源于年轻投资者在未来劳动供给和养老金收入面临不确定性时承担的过度风险,这一结果为长期机构投资者的养老金计划提供了新的设计。Influenced by the economic downward pressure,the potential unemployment risk of an individual is mounting.To evade the adverse effect,a person should adjust his/her traditional financial management method and make a plan of asset allocation for the life cycle.But this does not mean they should invest their assets heavily on stocks when they are young.A life cycle model involving chronic unemployment risk is set up to explore how long-term unemployment risk affects lifelong welfare loss through asset allocation variations.The results show the risk of long-term unemployment will perpetually dim the future revenue outlook of a person;the risk of human capital devaluation after chronic unemployment will cause a considerable welfare loss(accounting for 2.92%to 8.62%of total annual consumption);and that such a welfare loss stems from the excessive risk undertaken by young investors when they are faced with uncertain labor supply and pension income in the future.The finding provides long-term institutional investors with a new perspective of pension planning.

关 键 词：资产配置 长期失业 经验法则 生命周期 福利损失 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]