基于DPSIR模型和耦合协调度模型的胶州湾海域承载力分析  

Analysis of marine region carrying capacity in Jiaozhou Bay based on the DPSIR model and coupling coordination degree model

作　　者：夏正启 王凯 彭道民 朱玉贵[3] 张龙军[1] XIA Zheng-qi;WANG Kai;PENG Dao-min;ZHU Yu-gui;ZHANG Long-jun(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;College of Marine Life Science,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,China;College of Fisheries,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学环境科学与工程学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋生命学院,山东青岛266003 [3]中国海洋大学水产学院,山东青岛266003

出　　处：《海洋科学》2023年第6期20-29,共10页Marine Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42176234)。

摘　　要：海域承载力是海洋资源利用协调发展的重要指标,本研究旨在根据胶州湾海域资源特征,基于DPSIR模型构建海域承载力评价指标体系,运用熵值法评价2000—2020年胶州湾海域承载力,并运用耦合协调度模型分析胶州湾海域承载力子系统内部的耦合协调度。结果表明,2000—2020年胶州湾海域承载力和耦合协调度变化幅度范围分别为0.70~0.95和0.73~0.85。研究结论如下:1)2000—2020年胶州湾海域承载力处于强可载、近满载状态,总体呈降低趋势;2)在压力层中的对海洋资源的需求是影响海域承载力的主要因素,而GDP(Gross Domestic Product)增长率、海洋渔船数和海洋渔船功率、人均滩涂面积和人均用海面积、主要海洋产业增加值年增长率、人工增殖放流则分别是影响驱动力层、压力层、状态层、影响层、响应层的主要因素;3)2000—2020年间胶州湾海域承载力整体耦合协调度总体呈“初级协调至良好协调”态势。Marine carrying capacity is a key indicator for the coordinated development of marine resource utilization.In this study,based on the resource characteristics of Jiaozhou Bay and the DPSIR model,an indicator system is developed to evaluate the marine carrying capacit of Jiaozhou Bay y and the entropy method is subsequently used to distribute the evaluation index weight of each indicator.Moreover,the coupling coordination degree model is used to analyze the coupling coordination degree within the carrying capacity subsystem of Jiaozhou Bay in 2000–2020 to provide a good demonstration and reference for the sustainable socioeconomic development of many adjacent Gulf cities at home and abroad.The findings reveal that between 2000 and 2020,the variation range of the marine carrying capacity is 0.70–0.95,and the coupling coordination degree of Jiaozhou Bay is 0.73–0.85.The conclusions of this study are as follows:1)the overall carrying capacity of Jiaozhou Bay exhibits a downward trend from 2000 to 2020,which corresponds to the trend from strong load capacity to critical load capacity,respectively;2)the demand for marine resources in the pressure layer is the main factor affecting the carrying capacity,and the GDP growth rate,number and power of marine fishing vessels,per capita beach and sea areas,annual growth rate of the added value of major marine industries,and artificial proliferation and release are the main factors affecting the driving force layer,pressure layer,state layer,influence layer,and response layer,respectively;and 3)the change in the coupling coordination degree of the system in the evaluation range approximately exhibits an overall trend of“primary coordination to good coordination.”

关 键 词：胶州湾 海域承载力 熵值法 DPSIR模型 耦合协调度模型 

分 类 号：X82[环境科学与工程—环境工程] P74[天文地球—海洋科学]