计及风电场出力相关性的电力系统概率潮流研究  

Probabilistic Power Flow Study of Power System Considering Correlation of Wind Farms

作　　者：武继聪 WU Jicong(Hebei Xintianke Innovative Energy Technology Co.,Ltd.,Zhangjiakou 075000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北新天科创新能源技术有限公司,河北张家口075000

出　　处：《电工技术》2023年第13期47-49,53,共4页Electric Engineering

摘　　要：随着我国“碳达峰”和“碳中和”目标的提出,风电在作为一种可再生能源缓解了我国资源匮乏的现状的同时,其出力的不确定性及多风电场之间的相关性对电力系统潮流分析带来了挑战。基于风电场实际出力,构建多风电场出力样本数据集,克服单一Copula模型刻画不全面的缺点,综合拟合效果好的Copula模型,提出通过最小二乘法完成参数辨识的混合Copula模型。针对混合Copula模型的特性建立其特有的混合抽样法,提出计及风电场出力相关性的电力系统概率潮流分析流程,并通过对河北风电场的算例分析,验证了所建立的出力模型以及抽样方法在计及多风电场出力相关性的电力系统概率潮流计算方面的有效性。With the proposal of China′s"carbon peak"and"carbon neutrality"goals,the new power system connected to wind power has received extensive attention.As a renewable energy source,wind power has eased the scarcity of resources in China,however,the uncertainty of its output and the correlation between multiple wind farms pose a challenge to the power system tide analysis.Based on the actual output of wind farms,a multi-wind farm output sample data set is constructed to overcome the shortcomings of incomplete portrayal of a single Copula model,to synthesize a Copula model with good fitting effect,and to propose a hybrid Copula model that completes parameter identification by the least squares method.According to the characteristics of the hybrid Copula model,a unique hybrid sampling method is established,and a power system probabilistic power flow analysis process considering the correlation of wind farm output is proposed.Through the analysis of Hebei wind farms,the effectiveness of the established output model and sampling method in calculating the probabilistic power flow of power system considering the correlation of multi-wind farm output is verified.

关 键 词：相关性 混合Copula 最小二乘法 混合抽样法 概率潮流 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]