陕西区域物流竞争力时空演变及仿真预测  

Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Simulation Prediction of Shaanxi Regional Logistics Competitiveness

作　　者：李建华[1] 陈宇 LI Jianhua;CHEN Yu(School of Mechanical Engineering,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学机械工程学院,西安710054

出　　处：《计算机与数字工程》2023年第5期1053-1058,共6页Computer & Digital Engineering

摘　　要：为探究陕西区域物流竞争力发展规律,构建区域物流竞争力评价指标体系,采用熵权TOPSIS法对“十三五”期间陕西10个地市分析时间演变规律,借助GIS软件构建模型选取2016、2018、2020年三年进行空间演变规律分析,最后运用Anylogic构建系统动力学模型对陕西区域物流竞争力进行仿真预测。研究表明:“十三五”期间陕西区域物流竞争力水平差异显著,西安区域物流竞争力稳居第一,最弱为商洛和铜川。整体在空间断面上变化较小呈“中部独大”格局。通过仿真发现:改变物流需求比例对陕西区域物流竞争力影响最显著,且二者呈正相关。To construct a regional logistics competitiveness evaluation index system for exploring the development law of regional logistics competitiveness in Shaanxi,the entropy TOPSIS method is used to analyze the time evolution of 10 prefecture-level cities in Shaanxi during the"13th five-year plan"period,and the model selection 2016,2018 and 2020,the law of spatial evolution in three years are analyzed,finally Anylogic is used to construct a system dynamics model to simulate and predicte the regional logistics competitiveness of Shaanxi.The study finds that the regional logistics competitiveness of Shaanxi has significant differences during the"thirteenth five-year plan"period.Xi'an regional logistics competitiveness steadily is first,Shangluo and Tongchuan are the weakest.The overall change in the spatial cross-section is small,showing a pattern of"dominant central China".The simulation finds that changing the proportion of logistics demand has the most significant impact on the regional logistics competitiveness of Shaanxi,and the two are positively correlated.

关 键 词：区域物流竞争力 熵权TOPSIS 时空演变 系统动力学建模 Anylogic仿真预测 

分 类 号：F259.2[经济管理—国民经济]