经验频率公式参数变化对水文频率分析的影响  

Influence of Parameter Variation of Empirical Frequency Formula on Hydrological Frequency Analysis

作　　者：侯苗 董阿忠 应海燕 杨星 王志寰 HOU Miao;DONG Azhong;YING Haiyan;YANG Xing;WANG Zhihuan(Jiangsu Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210017,China;Nantong Jindian Safety Technology Co.,Ltd.,Nantong 226000,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省水利科学研究院,江苏南京210017 [2]南通金典安全技术有限公司,江苏南通226000

出　　处：《浙江水利水电学院学报》2023年第3期24-30,共7页Journal of Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power

基　　金：江苏省水利科学研究院自主科研基金项目(2023z046)。

摘　　要：经验频率公式中可变参数a变化会影响水文变量理论频率的计算结果。为此,以江苏境内实测的年最高潮位、年最大日降雨量和年最大流量等3组水文样本数据为例,基于最大似然算法,研究a变化对Pearson TypeⅢ,Lognormal和Generalized Extreme Value等三型理论分布函数分析结果的影响规律。结果显示:随着a的增大,经验频率和理论频率的计算结果出现了规律性的变化;理论分布函数参数的估值也发生了规律性变化;相同重现期的样本变量设计值增大;优选的理论分布函数发生了变化;增加样本数量的长度,可以显著减小a变化对经验频率计算结果的影响。The variation of variable parameter a in the empirical frequency formula will affect the calculation results of the theoretical frequency of hydrological variables.Therefore,based on three groups of hydrological sample data,including annual maximum tidal level,annual maximum daily rainfall and annual maximum flow discharge measured in Jiangsu Province,the influence of variation of parameter a on the analysis results of Pearson Type III,Lognormal and Generalized Extreme Value theoretical distribution functions was studied based on maximum likelihood method.The results show that with the increase of parameter a,the calculated results of empirical frequency and theoretical frequency change regularly;the estimation of the parameters of the theoretical distribution function also changes regularly;the design values of sample variables for the same return period increased;the optimal theoretical distribution functions have changed;increasing the length of sample data can significantly reduce the influence of parameter a on the calculation results of empirical frequencies.

关 键 词：经验频率公式 理论分布函数 参数变化 最大似然法 

分 类 号：TV131[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]