基于PROMETHEE法的中国乡村振兴水平的测度、空间分异与收敛性研究  

Measurement,spatial differentiation and convergence test of China′s rural revitalization level based on the PROMETHEE method

作　　者：时朋飞 龙荟冰 田子业 覃举东[4] 李星明[3] SHI Pengfei;LONG Huibing;TIAN Ziye;QIN Judong;LI Xingming(College of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 4000715,China;School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha 410079,China;School of urban and Environmental Sciences,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China;School of Business,Hechi University,Hechi 546300,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715 [2]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079 [3]华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430079 [4]河池学院商学院,广西河池546300

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2023年第8期937-948,共12页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(编号:21CJY053)。

摘　　要：在构建乡村振兴评价指标体系的基础上,运用PROMETHEE评价法测度2013—2020年中国乡村振兴水平,并进一步采用莫兰指数、冷热点分析、趋势分析、收敛检验探究了乡村振兴水平的时空分异特征及趋势,最后借助PROMETHEE彩虹图分析其优劣势指标。结果表明:①中国乡村振兴整体水平有所提升,区域间差距明显缩小,并呈现“东部较高、中部居中、西部较低”的位序特征;②各省乡村振兴水平存在高度的空间集聚,热点、次热点区范围不断扩大,整体呈现“东高西低、北高南低、东西陡峭、南北平缓”的空间趋势特征,同时也存在着地域差距收敛和发展速度收敛两种收敛趋向;③东部地区优势指标多,但存在个别短板,中部地区优劣势指标参半,西部地区大部分为劣势指标,乡村振兴驱动与障碍因素存在地区差异。基于以上结论,本文提出培育发展增长极与区域协同发展、宏观政策引领与因地制宜相结合的对策建议,以促进区域间发展差距缩小与农村地区发展瓶颈突破。Based on the construction of a comprehensive evaluation index system for rural revitalization,this study measured the dynamic development level of rural revitalization in China from 2013 to 2020 using the PROMETHEE method.The regional and temporal divergence characteristics and trends of the level of rural revitalization were further investigated using Moran's I,hot-spot analysis,trend analysis,and convergence test.Finally,its advantage indicators and disadvantage indicators were examined using the PROMETHEE rainbow diagram.The findings revealed that:①The overall level of China's rural revitalization had improved,and the gap between regions had significantly narrowed.The level of rural revitalization showed a stepped distribution trend of"higher in the east,middle in the middle,and lower in the west".②The level of rural revitalization in each province demonstrated a high degree of spatial clustering,showing the spatial trend characteristics of"high in the east and low in the west,high in the north and low in the south,steep in the east and west,and gentle in the north and south".Furthermore,the hotspot and sub-hotspot areas were observed to expand over time,along with two converging trends:the convergence of geographical disparity and the convergence of development speed.③The PROMETHEE rainbow diagram revealed regional differences in various driving factors and obstacles of rural revitalization.Advantage indicators were more prevalent in the east despite some individual weaknesses,while the western region mostly exhibited inferior indicators.The central region had mixed advantage and disadvantage indicators.Based on these findings,this paper proposed policy suggestions to close the development gap between regions and remove the rural development bottleneck,such as cultivating growth poles and coordinating regional development,and implementing macro policy guidance and measures according to local conditions.

关 键 词：乡村振兴 PROMETHEE 时空分异 收敛分析 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济] F302.2