中美贸易摩擦背景下国内外大宗商品期货价格的联动性研究  

Research on the Linkage of Domestic and Foreign Commodities’Futures Prices under the Background of Sino-US Trade Friction

作　　者：李俊文 LI Junwen(Guangxi University of Finance and Economics Nanning,Guangxi 530003)

机构地区：[1]广西财经学院,广西南宁530003

出　　处：《中国商论》2023年第15期108-111,共4页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：广西财经学院2021年科研课题“我国大宗商品国际定价权缺失的问题研究”(BS2021015)。

摘　　要：中美贸易摩擦的持续使国内外大宗商品期货价格的波动更加复杂,本文通过建立VAR模型,运用格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解等实证方法,研究国内外大宗商品期货价格之间的联动性。结果表明,国外大宗商品期货市场在价格传递中占主导地位,其影响力有待进一步加强。本文认为我国应该加强大宗商品期货市场建设、完善大宗商品价格监测预警机制、健全大宗商品战略储备体系以防范期货市场风险、维护国家经济安全。The ongoing escalation of trade friction between China and the United States has made the fl uctuation of domestic and foreign commodities’futures prices more complicated.This paper studies the linkage between domestic and foreign commodities’futures prices by establishing the VAR model,using the Granger causality test,analysis of impulse response function,variance decomposition,and other empirical methods.The results show that foreign commodities’futures market plays a leading role in price transmission,and its infl uence needs to be further strengthened.This paper argues that China should strengthen the development of the commodity futures market,improve the monitoring and early warning mechanism of commodity prices,and improve the strategic reserve systems of commodities,to prevent risks in the futures market and safeguard national economic security.

关 键 词：贸易摩擦 大宗商品 期货价格 VAR模型 格兰杰因果关系检验 

分 类 号：F724.5[经济管理—产业经济]