基于动态贝叶斯网络的民航空中停车事件安全风险评估  

Safety risk assessment of civil aviation air parking events based on DBN

作　　者：陈芳[1] 崔庆敏 向千秋 CHEN Fang;CUI Qingmin;XIANG Qianqiu(School of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Civil Aviation Airport Chengdu Electronic Engineering Design Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu Sichuan 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300 [2]民航机场成都电子工程设计有限责任公司,四川成都610041

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2023年第7期16-23,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：2021年民航局安全能力项目(ASSA2021/53)。

摘　　要：为探究组织和人的因素对发动机空中停车事件的影响及其演化情况,评估航空公司空停事件的风险水平,基于动态贝叶斯网络(DBN),构建一种适用于民航空停的风险评估模型。首先,运用主动与被动相结合的方式,识别影响发动机发生空停事件的组织和人的因素;其次,利用毕达哥拉斯模糊和决策试验与评估实验室(DEMATEL)方法,探究各个风险因素之间的因果关系;然后,基于得到的风险因素因果关系构建民航空停DBN,依据统计分析和专家经验确定民航空停的DBN参数,通过GeNle概率推理,进一步得出空停事件发生的概率;最后,以S航空公司的CFM56-5B发动机为例,评估民航空停事件安全风险。结果表明:2020—2021年,S航空公司的CFM56-5B发动机发生空停事件的概率分别为1.260×10^(-6)、1.352×10^(-6);导致民航空停事件安全风险变化的主要原因是资源投入减少导致教育培训效果降低进而影响作风意识和合作沟通。In order to explore the impact and evolution of organizational and human factors on IFSD events of engine and to evaluate the risk level of airline IFSD events,a risk assessment model was built for civil aviation IFSD based on DBN.Firstly,the active and passive methods were used to identify the organizational and human factors that affected the occurrence of IFSD.Secondly,Pythagorean fuzzy DEMATEL was used to explore the causal relationship between risk factors.Then,the DBN of civil aviation IFSD was constructed based on the obtained causal relationship,and the parameters were obtained based on statistical analysis and expert experience.The occurrence probability of IFSD events was obtained through GeNle probability reasoning.Finally,the CFM56-5B engine of S Airlines was taken as an example to conduct the safety risk assessment of IFSD events.The results indicate that the probability of air stop of CFM56-5B engine of S Airlines from 2020 to 2021 is 1.260×10^(-6) and 1.352×10^(-6),respectively.The main reason for the change in safety risks of civil aviation IFSD events is that the decrease in"resource investment"leads to the decrease in the effectiveness of"education and training",which in turn affects"work style awareness"and"cooperation and communication".

关 键 词：动态贝叶斯网络(DBN) 空中停车(IFSD) 安全风险评估 毕达哥拉斯模糊 决策试验与评估实验室(DEMATEL) 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]