数字经济对中国区域出口韧性的影响及空间溢出效应研究  

Research on the impact of digital economy on China’s regional export resilience and its spatial spillover effect

作　　者：马建峰[1] 刘冰[1] 李凯杰 MA Jian-feng;LIU Bing;LI Kai-jie(School of Economics and Management,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083;School of International Business and Economics,Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou,Henan 450046)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]河南财经政法大学国际经济与贸易学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《价格月刊》2023年第8期32-42,共11页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“数字经济赋能中国区域出口贸易韧性:理论机理及路径选择”(编号:42201185);国家社会科学基金项目“绿色发展理念下我国出口企业行为调整对就业质量的影响研究”(编号:21BJL100)。

摘　　要：在对外贸易影响因素不断复杂化和数字经济快速增长的背景下,研究数字经济能否提升出口韧性,对出口贸易未来的长期稳定发展具有重要意义。基于2008—2019年中国省级面板数据,构建双向固定效应模型识别数字经济对区域出口韧性的影响并验证影响机制及检验影响的空间溢出效应。结果显示,数字经济发展对提升地区出口韧性具有显著促进作用,且在中西部地区的提升作用比在东部地区更明显,数字化基础设施和数字化创新能力的促进作用更显著,数字经济在出口韧性高分位点处的提升能力更强;机制检验结果表明,数字经济能够通过创新效应提高地区出口韧性,良好基础设施和市场化水平能够强化促进作用;数字经济发展对出口韧性的提升作用在总效应、直接效应和间接效应上都显示出显著的正向空间溢出。结合研究结论,提出了相关对策建议。As the factors affecting foreign trade continue to be complex and the digital economy grows rapidly,it is of great significance to study whether digital economy can improve export resilience for the long-term and stable development of export trade in the future.Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2008 to 2019,this paper constructs a two-way fixed effect model to identify the impact of the digital economy on regional export resilience,examine the impact mechanism,and test the spatial spillover effects of the impact.The results show that the development of digital economy has a significant promoting effect on improving regional export resilience,and the enhancing effect in the central and western regions is more obvious than that in the eastern region,the promoting effect of digital infrastructure and digital innovation capability is more significant,and the digital economy has a stronger ability to enhance the export resilience of the higher points.The mechanism test results show that digital economy can improve regional export resilience through innovation effect,and good infrastructure and marketization can strengthen the promoting effect;The enhancing effect of the development of digital economy on export resilience shows significant positive spatial spillover in terms of total effect,direct effect and indirect effect.Based on the research conclusions,this paper proposes relevant countermeasures and suggestions.

关 键 词：数字经济 出口韧性 创新效应 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：F752.68[经济管理—国际贸易]