我国育龄女性生育决策问题探究——基于演化博弈视角  

On Fertility Decision-Making Among Women of Reproductive Age in China——Based on an Evolutionary Game Perspective

作　　者：殷豪 肖丹 Yin Hao;Xiao Dan(School of General Education,Chongqing Energy College,Chongqing 402247;School of Management,Pass College of Chongqing Technology&Business University,Chongqing 401520)

机构地区：[1]重庆能源职业学院通识学院,重庆402247 [2]重庆工商大学派斯学院管理学院,重庆401520

出　　处：《西部学刊》2023年第15期155-160,167,共7页Journal of Western

摘　　要：在我国低生育率问题尤为突出的背景下,利用演化博弈理论的思想和方法,探究育龄女性人群生育决策问题,将育龄女性策略选择比例引入博弈模型中,构建政府和育龄女性之间具有动态支付矩阵的非对称演化博弈模型,并分析模型的平衡点以及影响其演化路径的因素。结果表明:家庭总收入、生育政策支持程度越高越有利于生育,当住房、教育、医疗等成本越高时越不利于生育,同时抚养小孩所带来的机会成本、心理成本以及家庭养老成本对于生育决策的影响也不容忽视。为支持育龄女性生育,建议打造良好就业环境,让育龄女性树立生育信心,完善生育补贴政策,减轻生育家庭经济负担。In the context of China's low fertility rate,this paper uses the ideas and methods of evolutionary game theory to investigate the fertility decision of women of reproductive age.This paper introduces the ratio of women's strategic choice into the game model,con-structs an asymmetric evolutionary game model with a dynamic payment matrix between the government and women of reproductive age,and analyzes the equilibrium point of the model and the factors influencing its evolutionary path.The results indicate that the higher the total household income and the degree of support for fertility policy,the more favorable fertility is,and the higher the costs of housing,educa-tion,and medical care,the less favorable ferility is,while the opportunity cost,psychological cost,and family retirement cost associated with raising children have an impact on fertility decisions,which cannot be ignored.In order to support women of reproductive age to have children,it is recommended to create a good employment environment,let women of reproductive age establish confidence in having chil-dren,and improve the policy of childbirth subsidies to reduce the financial burden of childbearing families.

关 键 词：育龄女性 低生育率 非对称演化博弈 动态支付矩阵 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]