中美贸易关系与美国的高通货膨胀——一个成本传导机制的模型检验  

U.S.-China Trade Relations and High Inflation in the U.S.:A Test of Cost Transmission Mechanism

作　　者：韦森[1] 苏映雪 张嘉诚 Wei Sen;Su Yingxue;Zhang Jiacheng

机构地区：[1]复旦大学,上海市200433 [2]复旦大学经济学院 [3]上海联合产权交易所研究院

出　　处：《南方经济》2023年第8期1-14,共14页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：复旦发展研究院-金光思想库课题《后疫情时代的世界经济变局与中国货币政策研究》资助。

摘　　要：2021年下半年以来,美国通货膨胀率持续飙升,打破了40年来通胀数据记录。目前,大部分学者都注意到疫情期间美国政府的财政和货币刺激政策以及供应端冲击导致了此次疫情后美国通胀的飙升;然而,中美贸易冲突对此次通胀水平高企的作用却没有引起各方面足够重视。文章从货币理论视角给出了美国二十一世纪以来通胀动态与传统货币理论的背离,并给出了同通胀动态更相关的中美贸易的相关特征事实。文章提出了中美贸易摩擦带来的进口价格上涨和运输成本上涨对美国通胀有显著影响的研究假设,并给出了一个通货膨胀模型加以解释。实证检验方面,文章首先对2006—2022年美国月度通胀数据进行了时间序列建模,其次检验了中美贸易中进口价格上涨和运输成本上涨对美国通胀动态的影响。研究假设在全样本和疫情前的分样本中都得到了实证支持。基于这一分析,文章显示美国通胀走势不仅仅取决于美联储货币政策走向和国际原材料供应价格,更受到大国国际关系博弈的影响。对这一机制的深入探讨,关系着后疫情时代世界经济变局、中美关系走向以及中美如何理性应对国际关系对经济影响的战略问题。Since the second half of 2021,the inflation rate in the United States has continued to soar,breaking the inflation record in the United States for nearly 40 years.The U.S.government’s fiscal and monetary stimulus policies during the epidemic,as well as supply-side shocks,are believed to have contributed to the high inflation in the U.S.this time.However,the Sino-U.S.trade conflict and the resulting increase in import prices and transportation costs have not attracted much attention to the role of this high inflation.Based on the perspective of monetary theory,this paper first gives the deviation of the inflation dynamics of the United States from the traditional monetary theory since the 21st century,and gives the relevant characteristics and facts of Sino-U.S.trade that are more related to the inflation dynamics.This article points out:Sino-U.S.trade prices and transportation costs have risen after Sino-U.S.relations deteriorated;the U.S.imported more Chinese goods during the epidemic;the United States has received a significant price dividend in its past 20 years with China,and the loss of this dividend is the motivation for the United States to seek alternatives to Chinese products;the outbreak of the covid epidemic has indirectly caused high inflation in the United States by the United States’strategies during the trade war in 2018.This paper then tests the hypothesis that the increase in import prices and transportation costs brought about by Sino-U.S.trade frictions has a significant impact on US inflation,and an inflation-based model is given to explain.In terms of empirical testing,this paper first conducts a time-series modeling of monthly U.S.inflation data from 2006 to 2022,and then examines the impact of rising import prices and rising transportation costs in Sino-U.S.trade on U.S.inflation dynamics.The research hypothesis has received empirical support in both the full sample and the sub-sample before the outbreak of the epidemic.Based on this analysis,this paper shows that the trend of U.S.infla

关 键 词：美国通胀 货币政策 中美贸易战 成本传导 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]