基于易发性分区的区域滑坡降雨预警阈值确定——以云南龙陵县为例  

Determination of regional landslide rainfall warning threshold based on susceptibility zoning:A case study in Longling County of Yunnan Province

作　　者：宋昭富 张勇[1,2] 佘涛 孙金辉[1,2] 韩新强 陶昶旭[1,2] SONG Zhaofu;ZHANG Yong;SHE Tao;SUN Jinhui;HAN Xinqiang;TAO Changxu(Institute of Exploration Technology,CAGS,Chengdu,Sichuan 611734,China;Technology Innovation Center for Risk Prevention and Mitigation of Geohazards,Ministry of Natural Resources,Chengdu,Sichuan 611734,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院探矿工艺研究所,四川成都611734 [2]自然资源部地质灾害风险防控工程技术创新中心,四川成都611734

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2023年第4期22-29,共8页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：中国地质调查局地质调查项目(DD20221741)。

摘　　要：滑坡所处不同易发等级的区域,降雨预警阈值差别较大。为提高滑坡降雨预警的针对性和准确率,文章以野外地质调查和滑坡易发条件分析为基础,结合信息量模型和层次分析法开展滑坡易发性评价,再通过滑坡发生概率与前期累计降雨量的相关性分析,分区进行滑坡降雨预警阈值模型研究。结果表明:坡度、高程、距断层距离、工程地质岩组、水系是龙陵县滑坡的主要孕灾地质条件;龙陵县滑坡非易发区面积为14.33 km^(2),低易发区面积为1053.87 km^(2),中易发区面积为1471.65 km^(2),高易发区面积为254.73 km^(2);确定单日和前3日为降雨预警时间,分区分时细化了降雨预警阈值模型;对比降雨预警阈值模型应用于龙陵县滑坡监测预警中的前后,预警信息减少了70条,预警准确率提高了14.4%,并实现了镇安镇户帕村施家寨组滑坡的有效预警。文章为区域滑坡降雨预警阈值确定提供了一种较好的参考方法。Areas with different levels of susceptibility to landslides,rainfall warning thresholds vary widely,to improve the pertinence and accuracy of landslide monitoring and early warning.Based on field geological survey and landslide susceptibility condition analysis,this paper combines information quantity model and analytic hierarchy method to carry out susceptibility evaluation,and then analyzes the correlation between landslide occurrence probability and cumulative rainfall,and conducts landslide rainfall early warning threshold model research by zoning.The results showed that:Slope,elevation,geological structure,engineering rock group and water system are the main geological conditions of landslides in Longling County;The area of non-prone areas in Longling County was 14.33 km^(2),the area of low prone area was 1053.87 km^(2),the area of medium prone area was 1471.65 km^(2),and the area of high prone area was 254.73 km^(2);The rainfall warning time was determined for a single day and the previous 3 days,and the rainfall warning threshold was refined by district;Compared with the rainfall warning threshold model applied to the landslide monitoring and early warning in Longling County,the number of early warning information decreased by 70,the accuracy of early warning was increased by 14.4%,and the effective early warning of landslide in Shijiazhai Formation of Huba Village,Zhen’an Town was realized.This paper provides a good reference method for determining the regional landslide rainfall warning threshold.

关 键 词：滑坡 易发性分区 发生概率 降雨预警阈值模型 监测预警 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]