数据拟合方法对电缆绝缘材料寿命预测的影响  

The Influence of Data Fitting Method on Life Prediction of Cable Insulation Materials

作　　者：周洪鹏 王春锋[2] 徐宗铭 ZHOU Hongpeng;WANG Chunfeng;XU Zongming(Zhong Tian Radio Frequency Cable Co.,Ltd.,Nantong 226010,China;Harbin University of Science and Technology,Harbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]中天射频电缆有限公司,南通226010 [2]哈尔滨理工大学,哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《电线电缆》2023年第4期5-10,共6页Wire & Cable

基　　金：中国中车CRRC 202250KG0217。

摘　　要：为降低电缆绝缘材料使用寿命的预测误差,本工作采用不同拟合方法对常规热老化方法的性能数据进行处理,研究拟合方法对绝缘材料使用寿命预测的影响。分别对绝缘材料在不同老化温度下的断裂伸长率保留率数据进行线性拟合和多项式拟合,通过拟合结果确定绝缘材料在不同老化温度下的失效时间,进而获得绝缘材料的寿命方程并计算绝缘材料工作温度为60℃时的使用寿命。结果表明,采用不同拟合方式计算出的绝缘材料失效时间出现波动,失效时间的波动导致寿命曲线的差异,并显著影响对绝缘材料工作温度为60℃时使用寿命的预测。In order to reduce the error of predicting the service life of cable insulation materials,different fitting methods were used to process the mechanical properties data obtained by conventional thermal aging methods,to study the influence of fitting method on predicting the service life of insulating materials.The data of reserved elongation at break of insulating materials at different aging temperatures was fitted by linear fitting and polynomial fitting respectively,the failure time of insulation materials at different aging temperatures was determined by the fitting results,the life equation of insulating materials was obtained and the life of insulating materials used at 60℃was extrapolated.The results showed that the failure time of insulating materials fluctuates with different fitting methods.Besides,different fitting methods caused the fluctuation of the failure time of insulating materials,and the fluctuation of the failure time led to the difference of the life curve,which significantly affected the prediction of the service life of insulating materials at 60℃.

关 键 词：绝缘材料 寿命预测 线性拟合 多项式拟合 

分 类 号：TM211[一般工业技术—材料科学与工程]