“双碳”目标、产业结构与可再生能源发展探析  

Analysis of"Double Carbon"Goal,Industrial Structure and Renewable Energy Development

作　　者：袁培[1] 董志炜 赵娜 YUAN Pei;DONG Zhiwei;ZHAO Na(School of Economics,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《上海节能》2023年第8期1097-1105,共9页Shanghai Energy Saving

基　　金：“双碳”目标下新疆新能源产业发展的政策设计——基于市场机制行政干预的协同作用视角(编号XJUFE2022K27)。

摘　　要：“双碳”目标背景下,如何调整可再生能源发展宏观经济条件,推动可再生能源发展动力从供给侧向需求侧转变,实现能源转型和经济高质量协调发展是亟须解决的现实问题。利用2012-2021年中国30个省、市、自治区的面板数据,构建面板数据模型探讨可再生能源发展需求侧影响因素。研究结论显示:经济发展水平是推动可再生能源发展的主要影响因素,人口、电力消耗和能源消费强度也对我国可再生能源发展产生了正向的影响;城市化水平和CO_(2)排放与可再生能源发展呈显著负相关,表明城市化水平在可再生能源发展初期,会在一定程度上抑制可再生能源的需求,由于我国可再生能源在能源供给结构占比较低,因此碳排放还未成为促进产业发展主要动力,“双碳”压力下后期应大力加强可再生能源产业发展;产业结构高级化主要通过影响经济增长进而对可再生能源产业产生更大依赖,同时产业结构变迁也将影响能源消费强度,其作用强度弱于经济增长的拉动作用。因此,建议必须推动经济高质量发展,推动可再生能源的技术创新水平不断提升,持续推进人们对可再生能源消费的意识。同时,强调第二产业能源效率的提高,降低能源消费强度,以保证我国“双碳”目标、能源转型和经济高质量发展。In the context of the"Double Carbon"goal,how to adjust the macroeconomic conditions for the de-velopment of renewable energy,promote the transformation of the driving force of renewable energy develop-ment from the supply side to the demand side,and achieve energy transformation and high quality coordinated economic development are urgent practical problems that need to be solved.Using panel data from 30 provinc-es,cities,and autonomous regions in China from 2012 to 2021,construct a panel data model to explore the de-mand side influencing factors of renewable energy development.The research conclusion shows that the level of economic development is the main influencing factor for promoting the development of renewable energy,and population,electricity consumption,and energy consumption intensity also have a positive impact on the development of renewable energy in China;The level of urbanization and CO_(2)emissions are significantly nega-tively correlated with the development of renewable energy,indicating that the level of urbanization in the early stages of renewable energy development will to some extent suppress the demand for renewable energy.Due to the relatively low proportion of renewable energy in China's energy supply structure,carbon emissions have not yet become the main driving force for promoting industrial development.Under the pressure of"Double Carbon",efforts should be made to strengthen the development of the renewable energy industry in the later stage;The upgrading of industrial structure mainly affects economic growth and generates greater dependence on the renewable energy industry.At the same time,changes in industrial structure will also affect the intensity of energy consumption,which is weaker than the driving effect of economic growth.Therefore,it is recommend-ed to promote high quality economic development,continuously improve the level of technological innovation in renewable energy,and continuously promote people's awareness of renewable energy consumption.At the same time,it emphas

关 键 词：“双碳”目标 可再生能源发展 经济高质量发展 产业结构优化 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] F426.2