气候变暖下山东省月尺度极端降水的时空变化特征  

Characteristics of spatiotemporal variation of monthly-scale extreme precipitation in Shandong Province under climate warming

作　　者：邹瑾 李君[3] 高理 ZOU Jin;LI Jun;GAO Li(Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,Jinan 250031,China;Shandong Provincial Climate Center,Jinan 250031,China;Zibo Meteorological Bureau,Zibo 255000,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象防灾减灾重点试验室,山东济南250031 [2]山东省气候中心,山东济南250031 [3]淄博市气象局,山东淄博255000

出　　处：《山东科学》2023年第4期104-113,共10页Shandong Science

基　　金：环渤海科技创新项目(QYXM202107);山东省气象局科研项目(2009sdqxz08)。

摘　　要：为揭示气候变暖背景下极端降水多尺度的变化规律,基于山东省国家气象站1961—2020年逐日降水量资料,利用百分位数相对阈值法分析月尺度极端降水事件的时空变化特征。结果表明:山东省极端降水事件主要出现在夏季7、8月,年频率均在40%以上;各地年频次大致自东南向西北递减。大部分地区极端降水年频次和极端降水量增加,除秋季外各季均增加,冬季增加明显。20世纪80年代中期之后,各地极端降水普遍增多增强,年际变化明显增大;夏季和冬季极端降水强度明显增强,其中,鲁中、鲁西南、半岛等地夏季每10 a增加10~20 mm,冬季各月增加20%~50%。可见,在气候变暖背景下,山东降水不稳定性普遍增加,更需加强暴雨洪涝、暴雪等灾害风险预警与防控服务。To reveal the multiscale variation law of extreme precipitation events under climate warming,based on the daily precipitation data of the National Meteorological Station from 1961 to 2020,the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events on the monthly scale in Shandong Province were analyzed using the percentile relative threshold method.The results show that the monthly-scale extreme precipitation events in Shandong Province mainly occurred in July and August with the annual frequency bigger than 40%.The annual frequency showed a decreasing trend as one moves from southeast to northwest regions.The annual frequency and precipitation of extreme precipitation events increased in most areas for all seasons except autumn and considerably increased in winter.After the mid-1980s,extreme precipitation events have generally increased and intensified,and their interannual changes have increased significantly.The intensity of extreme precipitation in summer and winter increased significantly by 10 mm to 20 mm during 10 years in summer in the central,southwestern,and peninsular areas of Shandong and 20%to 50%in winter months in Shandong province.The precipitation instability generally increases under climate warming in Shandong,and it is necessary to strengthen early warning and defense services for disaster risks such as rainstorm,flood,and blizzard.

关 键 词：山东省 极端降水 月尺度 时空分布 变化特征 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P467