人口老龄化、房价变动与政府债务规模扩张  

Population Aging, House Price Fluctuation andGovernment Debt Expansion

作　　者：杨颖 朴英爱[3] Yang Ying;Piao Yingai

机构地区：[1]中共南通市委党校经济学教研室 [2]南京信息工程大学管理科学与工程流动站 [3]吉林大学东北亚学院

出　　处：《兰州学刊》2023年第8期63-80,共18页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国‘一带一路’与韩国‘朝鲜半岛新经济地图’‘新北方政策’战略对接”(项目编号:19BGJ049)。

摘　　要：伴随着人口红利的消失和房价的全局性上涨,老龄化程度的不断加深不仅造成经济持续增长的乏力,同时对人力资本的跨区域配置结构和效率、地方政府的偿债能力均产生显著负向影响。如何缓解老龄化带来的劳动力结构变迁、化解房价上涨和债务违约风险之间的两难,已然成为推动供给侧结构性改革、构建全国要素统一大市场亟须解决的问题。对此,文章构建了两区域一般均衡框架,对劳动力流动造成的地区老龄化程度变化、房价变动和政府债务规模扩张之间的内在机制进行理论分析,并模拟了地区老龄化程度改变这一政策情形;揭示了地方政府债务规模扩张主要取决于由人口结构变动带来的土地融资渠道,而非老龄化造成的财政收支渠道。上述理论机制得到了中国省级数据的完整验证,同时实证结果进一步表明,地区老龄化程度及其隐含的劳动力结构差异对地方政府债务规模扩张的影响存在显著差别。With the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the overall rise of housing prices,the deepening of the aging not only causes the continuous weakness of the driving force for sustained economic growth,but also has a significant negative impact on the cross regional allocation structure and efficiency of human capital,and the solvency of local governments.How to optimize the labor structure change brought by population aging,and resolve the dilemma between house prices rising and debt default risk,has become an urgent problem to be solved to promote the structural reform of the supply side and build a unified national factor market.In this regard,this paper constructs a general equilibrium framework of two regions,theoretically analyzes the internal mechanism between the degree of population aging caused by labor migration,housing price changes and the expansion of government debt,and simulates the policy situation of intensified population aging.It reveals that the expansion of local government debt mainly depends on the land financing channel brought by the change of population structure,rather than the financial revenue and expenditure channel caused by population aging.The above theoretical mechanism has been fully verified by the provincial data in China.At the same time,the empirical results further show that the differences in the degree of population aging in regions and the implicit differences in labor structure have significant differences in the expansion of local government debt.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 土地财政渠道 政府收支渠道 政府债务规模 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]