过境免签政策的入境旅游效应及其内在机制——以中国57个主要旅游城市为例  

The Effects of China's Visa-free Transit Policy on Inbound Tourism and Its Internal Mechanism:A Case Study of 57 Major Tourism Cities in China

作　　者：张应武[1] 郑雪梅 ZHANG Yingwu;ZHENG Xuemei(School of Economic,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China;School of Management,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China)

机构地区：[1]海南大学经济学院,海南海口570228 [2]海南大学管理学院,海南海口570228

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2023年第8期134-147,共14页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“中国入境免签和离境退税的演变规律与异质性效应研究”(71964011);国家社会科学基金项目“中国加快发展入境旅游的政策评价及优化研究”(20BJY205);海南省研究生科研创新项目“海南省入境旅游政策的演进特征、量化评价与异质性效应研究”(Hyb2020-03)共同资助~~。

摘　　要：以过境免签为代表的签证便利化政策是中国入境旅游的重要制度创新尝试,其效应评估有助于后续制度完善和拓展,但现有文献忽略了其促进入境旅游发展的内在作用机制。文章将72小时过境免签政策实施视作一项准自然实验,基于57个主要旅游城市2004—2019年的面板数据,采用多时点双重差分法,实证分析过境免签政策的入境旅游效应及其机制。研究发现,过境免签政策对城市入境旅游人数和外汇收入均有促进效应,政策效果的主要传导渠道是成本效应而非光环效应。进一步分析发现,过境免签政策对于旅游资源、服务接待能力、地区经济活力、目的地品牌和货物贸易水平等基础性或配套性条件不足的城市尤为重要。文章结论为我国进一步完善签证制度体系提供了实证依据和决策参考。An important part of the modern economy,tourism has become a key comprehensive industry and a strategic pillar for the national economy.Domestic tourism,outbound tourism and inbound tourism are the three major markets of China's tourism.Compared with the flourishing domestic and outbound tourism,China's inbound tourism is relatively sluggish,with a deficit in the number of inbound tourists and tourism foreign exchange income.China has rich natural resources,splendid history and culture,various cuisine and a sound urban system.However,they have not been fully utilized in attracting inbound tourists,which does not match our economic development and globalization process.The key reason lies in China's low international openness,with the openness and inclusiveness of visa policy needing to be improved.To solve the above problems,China has successively issued various visa policies to simplify the process.In terms of visas,the visa-free transit policy is a main one.As the visa-free transit policy expands in greater scope and depth,scholars have reached a consensus that the visa-free transit policy can boost inbound tourism.However,they failed to pay attention to the mechanism of the policy effect,resulting in a lack of systematic and in-depth exploration of the internal mechanisms of the policy effect.The paper treats the implementation of the 72-hour visa-free transit policy as a quasi-natural experiment and empirically analyzes the policy's effect on inbound tourism and its underlying mechanism using the multi-point difference-in-difference(DID)and panel data of 57 major tourism cities from 2004 to 2019.The findings are as follows:(1)The implementation of the visa-free transit policy has a double promotion effect on inbound tourism development,which is both prosperous and wealthy.Compared with cities without such a policy,the number of inbound tourists and foreign exchange revenue of cities with the visa-free transit policy increased by 400000 and 1.28 billion yuan on average,with no time lag in tourists number but t

关 键 词：过境免签 入境旅游 内在机制 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]