来水不确定对跨流域工程供水调度风险的影响  

Effect of inflow uncertainty on water supply scheduling risk of inter-basin water transfer project

作　　者：华鑫 白涛[1] 李磊 赵云杰 黄强[1] HUA Xin;BAI Tao;LI Lei;ZHAO Yunjie;HUANG Qiang(State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an 710048,China;Shaanxi Province Institute of Water Resources and Electric Power Investigation and Design,Xi'an 710001,China;Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project Construction Co.Ltd,Xi'an 710024,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,西安710048 [2]陕西省水利电力勘测设计研究院,西安710001 [3]陕西省引汉济渭建设工程有限公司,西安710024

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2023年第8期21-31,共11页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202300);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2019JLM-52;2021JLM-44)。

摘　　要：为量化径流预报的不确定性所产生的供水风险,本文以引汉济渭跨流域调水工程为研究对象,基于来水不确定性的概率分布定义了供水风险,以此建立与求解了供水调度模型,获得了不同预报误差的多尺度供水风险值,厘清了风险升级的预报临界误差,揭示了来水不确定性对跨流域调水工程供水风险的影响。研究表明:产生供水风险的径流预报误差阈值为15%,且预报误差与供水风险呈二次幂函数关系;三河口水库可利用其多年调节水库的性能,缓解预报误差带来的供水风险;将供水风险分为轻险、中险和重险,确定了风险升级的阈值分别为0.117、0.190,对应的预报误差分别为24.0%、32.7%。研究成果将为保障陕西省引汉济渭工程等跨流域调水工程的调水安全提供决策依据。To quantify water supply risk caused by runoff forecast uncertainty,this paper defines water supply risk based on the probability distribution of inflow uncertainty,and develops a water supply scheduling model for the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Basin Water Diversion Project.Multi-scale water supply risk values with different forecasting errors are obtained.The critical forecasting error of risk escalation is clarified,and the influence of inflow uncertainty on the water supply risk of this cross-basin diversion project is revealed.The results demonstrate that for water supply risk,15% is a threshold of the runoff forecast error;the relationship between forecast error and water supply risk follows a quadratic power function.The Sanhekou reservoir can activate its multi-year water regulation to mitigate water supply risk caused by forecast errors.The water supply risks are divided into three levels:light,medium and heavy,and the thresholds for risk level upgrading are determined to be 0.117 and 0.190,corresponding to forecasting errors of 24.0% and 32.7%,respectively.The results provide a decision-making basis for ensuring the water diversion safety of the project.

关 键 词：来水不确定性 预报误差 供水调度 供水风险 引汉济渭工程 

分 类 号：TV697.12[水利工程—水利水电工程]