美国有望实现软着陆  

The US Economy is not going into Recession

作　　者：谭福梅[1] 苟尚德 Tan Fumei;Gou Shangde(Shenyang branch,the People's Bank of China;Central University of Finance and Economics School of Finance)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行沈阳分行 [2]中央财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《金融发展评论》2023年第5期1-9,共9页Financial Development Review

摘　　要：2023年美国经济能否实现“软着陆”存在着重大分歧。本文认为美国经济韧性仍较强,当前正处于通向“软着陆”的道路上;即使发生衰退也将是一次温和可控的浅衰退,预计持续时间较短。主要有四个原因:一是劳动力市场表现强劲;二是薪资增速与通胀水平将同步下降,通胀率将逐步回落;三是私人部门杠杆率和宽松政策退出风险均已见顶回落;四是美国经济富有韧性,没有巨大风险点,有助于实现“软着陆”。本文预计2023年美国经济不会出现严重衰退,且年内不会降息。There is a significant disagreement about whether the US economy will no recession in 2023.This paper argues that the US economy is still resilient and will not suffer a recession.If there is a recession,it will be a mild,shallow and manageable one,and is expected to be short in duration.There are four main reasons.First,the Labour market is strong;Second,the growth of wage and inflation will gradually fall in tandem;Third,the leverage ratio of private sector and the risk of an exit from loose policy have peaked and fllen.Fourth,the US economy is resilient,there are no big risks in the US economy,which will help stabilize the US economy.The U.S.economy is not expected to suffer a severe recession in 2023,and there will be no rate cut this year.

关 键 词：美国经济 软着陆 浅衰退 

分 类 号：F171.2[经济管理—世界经济]