气象因素对贵阳市5岁及以下儿童手足口病的影响及其交互效应研究  

Study on the influence and interaction of meteorological factors on HFMD in children aged 5 and under in Guiyang city

作　　者：王梦 雷娟 王子云[1] 潘春柳 杨鋆[3] 徐德淦 杨文桢 WANG Meng;LEI Juan;WANG Zi-yun;PAN Chun-liu;YANG Jun;XU De-gan;YANG Wen-zhen(School of Public Health and Health,Guizhou Medical University,Guiyang,Guizhou 550025,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]贵州医科大学公共卫生与健康学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]贵州省血液中心,贵州贵阳550001 [3]贵阳市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第15期2726-2730,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的 分析贵阳市5岁及以下儿童手足口病流行情况及气象因素间的交互作用,为预警监测及防控提供科学依据。方法 采用R4.0.2软件对2013—2021年贵阳市5岁及以下儿童手足口病流行特征进行描述性统计,利用广义相加模型分析气象因素与手足口病交互影响。结果 2013—2021年贵阳市累积报告手足口病209 783例,平均发病率76.82/10万。发病有明显的周期性和季节性,每年发病出现2个高峰,3—5月出现第一高峰,平均发病率为132.91/10万,9—10月出现次高峰,平均发病率为98.63/10万。气温差、平均气温与发病风险均呈倒“V”型,气温差峰值为9.0℃(RR=1.127,95%CI:1.101~1.713),后呈负向相关趋势;平均气温从4.4℃开始,峰值在19.0℃左右出现(RR=1.462,95%CI:1.334~1.823),随后逐渐降低。手足口病发病风险随着日平均风速0.78~2.70 m/s时,正相关,当日平均风速从2.70 m/s增至5.40 m/s时,进入平台期,7.10 m/s达到峰值(RR=1.883,95%CI:1.584~2.231)。平均气温在19.0℃左右,且日平均风速高(0.78~7.10 m/s)发病风险大;气温差在9.0℃同时湿度差较低时,发病风险较高,气温差低同时湿度差大时,发病风险低。结论 平均气温、日平均风速、气温差等气象因素与手足口病的发病密切相关,呈非线性且有一定的滞后性,气象因素两两存在协同交互效应,对手足口病的早期防治预警监测等应综合考虑气象因素。Objective To analyze the epidemic situation of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD) and the interaction effect among meteorological factors on children under 5 years old in Guiyang city,so as to provide scientific basis for early warning,monitoring,prevention,and control.Methods The epidemic characteristics of HFMD in children aged 5 years and under in Guiyang city from 2013 to 2021 were analyzed by R4.0.2 software,and the generalized additive model was used to analyze the interaction between meteorological factors and HFMD.Results A total of 209 783 cases were reported in Guiyang from2013 to 2021,with an average incidence of 76.82/100 000.The incidence showed obvious periodicity and seasonality,and there were two peaks every year:the first peak from March to May with the average incidence rate of 132.91/100 000 and the second peak from September to October with the average incidence rate of 98.63/100 000.The temperature difference,the average temperature,and the risk of disease all showed an inverted V-shape.The peak value of the temperature difference was 9.0℃(RR=1.127,95%CI:1.101-1.713) and then showed a negative correlation trend,and the average temperature began from 4.4 ℃,reaching the peak value at about 19.0℃(RR=1.462,95%CI:1.334-1.823) and then decreased gradually.The risk of HFMD was positively correlated with the daily average wind speed from 0.78m/s to 2.70m/s.When the daily average wind speed increased from 2.70m/s to 5.40m/s,it entered the plateau period and peaked at 7.10m/s(RR=1.883,95%CI:1.584-2.231).The risk of disease was high when the average temperature was about 19.0℃ and the daily mean wind speed was high(0.78 m/s-7.10 m/s).When the temperature difference was 9.0℃ and the humidity difference was low,the risk was higher,and when the temperature difference was low and the humidity difference was large,the risk was low.Conclusion Meteorological factors such as average temperature,daily mean wind speed,and temperature difference are closely related to the incidence of HFMD,which is nonlinear

关 键 词：手足口病 气象因素 交互作用 

分 类 号：R725.1[医药卫生—儿科]