进出口偏向型技术进步的效应及路径选择:理论模型与经验检验  

Effects and Path Selection of Import-export Biased Technological Progress:Theoretical Model and Empirical Analysis

作　　者：蔡继明 曹越洋[3] 刘乐易 CAI Jiming;CAO Yueyang;LIU Leyi

机构地区：[1]清华大学社会科学学院 [2]清华大学政治经济学研究中心 [3]首都经济贸易大学经济学院 [4]浙江工商大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2023年第7期1-17,共17页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“中国特色社会主义政治经济学探索”(16ZDA241);清华大学自主科研项目“中国特色社会主义政治经济学探索”(20165080065)。

摘　　要：本文基于比较利益率均等原则,构建了一个兼顾效率与平等的国际贸易模型,用以研究进出口偏向型技术进步的效应与选择,并利用1996—2019年的中国分省数据,通过随机前沿法测算了偏向型技术进步指数及其影响因素。结果发现,近24年来,中国选择的是偏向出口导向的技术进步路径,这与进口替代产业的相对研发创新效率偏低等因素显著相关。本文认为,近年来中国在给定的发展阶段与客观环境条件下选择了最优技术进步路径,其背后的发展理论是静态与动态相结合(交替)的比较优势原理。当今的中国面临与历史经验不同的全新挑战,需要将发展重心适时地向进口替代做出调整,而不应继续依靠与加强出口导向。This paper constructs an international trade model that takes into account both efficiency and equality based on the principle of equal rate of comparative advantage.The model is used to study the effects and selection of import-export biased technological progress.Using provincial-level data from China from 1996 to 2019,this paper employs stochastic frontier analysis to estimate the index of import-export biased technological progress and its influencing factors.The results show that over the past 24 years,China has chosen a path of technological progress biased towards exports,which is significantly related to factors such as relatively low research and development innovation efficiency in import-substitution industries.The paper argues that in recent years,China has chosen the optimal path of technological progress given its stage of development and environmental conditions,and the underlying development theory is based on the principle of comparative advantage that combines static and dynamic(alternating)advantages.In the face of new challenges which are different from historical experiences,China needs to timely adjust its development focus towards import substitution rather than relying and strengthening on export-oriented approach.

关 键 词：国际贸易 偏向型技术进步 比较利益率均等 随机前沿法 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]