全球宏观经济环境、东道国制度质量与外商直接投资  

Global Macroeconomic Environment,Institutional Quality of Host Countries and Foreign Direct Investment

作　　者：常君晓 李飞跃[2] 黄玖立[1] 薛军 CHANG Junxiao;LI Feiyue;HUANG Jiuli;XUE Jun

机构地区：[1]南开大学跨国公司研究中心、经济学院 [2]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2023年第7期53-69,共17页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地南开大学跨国公司研究中心“十四五”自设课题“产业结构升级与中国企业对外直接投资关系研究”;国家自然科学基金面上项目“深度贸易开放与国内价值链重塑”(71973072);天津市教委社会科学重大项目“价值网络重构对天津市民营企业高质量发展的影响机理研究”(2022JWZD03)。

摘　　要：本文以2008年金融危机爆发后全球宏观经济环境的恶化为背景,基于2002—2019年中国上市企业数据,使用双重差分法识别东道国制度质量对外商直接投资的影响。研究结果表明:与危机前相比,危机后企业更倾向投资于制度质量高的国家(地区);该结果不受危机前后东道国资产价格变化的影响,与“抄底说”有本质的区别;机制检验显示东道国制度质量在产权制度和契约制度两种渠道上都有显著的积极影响。本研究说明在不利的经济环境中,高制度质量国家(地区)更能维护企业利益,降低交易成本,稳定企业投资的预期回报,吸引外商直接投资。本研究有助于解开东道国制度质量谜题,为中国企业海外投资提供理论参考。This paper examines the influence of the institutional quality of host countries on foreign direct investment(FDI)in the context of the deterioration of the global macroeconomic environment following the outbreak of the 2008 financial crisis,using the data of Chinese listed companies from 2002 to 2019 and employing the difference-in-differences method.Our findings reveal that companies are more inclined to invest in countries(regions)with high institutional quality after the crisis compared to the pre-crisis period.Furthermore,the change in host country asset prices before and after the crisis does not affect this conclusion,which distinguishes this study from the"bottom-fishing theory".Mechanism tests indicate that the institutional quality of host countries has a significantly positive impact through both property rights institutions and contracting institutions channels.We demonstrate the importance of high institutional quality in better protecting companies'interests,reducing transaction costs,stabilizing expected returns on investment,and attracting FDI,particularly in unfavorable economic environments.This research contributes to unraveling the complexities of institutional quality in host countries and provides theoretical insights for Chinese companies'outward direct investment.

关 键 词：制度质量 外商直接投资 金融危机 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F110[经济管理—国际贸易]