国际航运对我国进口木材价格的影响研究  

Research on the Influence of International Shipping Freight Rate on Imported Wood Price in China

作　　者：叶善椿[1] YE Shanchun

机构地区：[1]东莞职业技术学院商贸学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2023年第2期98-102,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学“十三五”规划2018年度学科共建项目(GD18XGL04);中国物流学会课题(2022CSLKT3-285);东莞职业技术学院科研基金项目(2021a14)。

摘　　要：国际航运市场运价波动对我国木材进口的海运物流成本有明显的影响。基于协整检验、Granger因果检验和VAR模型分析国际航运价格对我国进口锯材和原木价格的影响,研究结果表明:国际航运运价与我国进口锯材和原木价格具有协整关系;BDI是我国进口锯材价格的Granger原因,波罗的海巴拿马型散货船运价指数(BPI)和中国进口干散货运价指数(CDFI)都是我国进口锯材价格和原木价格的Granger原因;我国进口锯材价格对BDI、BPI和CDFI的脉冲响应极小,我国进口原木价格对BPI和CDFI的脉冲响应为正向影响,且存在滞后性;国际航运运价对我国进口锯材价格变动贡献率大小依次为BDI、BPI、CDFI,BPI比CDFI对我国进口原木价格变动贡献率更大。基于此,木材进口商应关注国际海运运价变动、与航运企业建立长期合作关系,政府应适当提升国内木材自给能力和扩大国外进口来源。The fluctuation of international shipping freight rate has a significant impact on the shipping logistics cost of China's wood imports.Employ Cointegration Test,Granger Causality Test and VAR model to ana-lyze the influence of international shipping freight rates on the prices of imported sawn timber and log in Chi-na.The results show that:International shipping rates have a cointegration relationship with the prices of im-ported sawn timber and log in China;BDI is the Granger reason for the price of imported sawn timber in China;The Baltic Panama Index(BPI)and the China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index(CDFI)are the Granger reasons for the price of imported sawn timber and logs in China.The impulse response of imported sawn timber price to BDI,BPI and CDFI is very small,while the impulse response of imported log price in China to BPI and CDFI is positive,and there is a hysteresis.The contribution rate of international shipping freight rates to the price changes of imported sawn timber in China is:BDI>BPI>CDFI;BPI has a greater contribution to the change of imported log price than CDFI.Therefore,some suggestions are put forward:timber importers should pay attention to changes in international shipping freight,establish long-term cooperation with shipping companies,and the government should appropriately improve domestic timber self-sufficiency.

关 键 词：航运运价 进口木材价格 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F551[经济管理—产业经济] F125F426.88F752.6