Hybrid Seasonal Prediction of Meridional Temperature Gradient Associated with“Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia”  

作　　者：Tianbao XU Zhicong YIN Xiaoqing MA Yanyan HUANG Huijun WANG 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [2]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519080,China [3]Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2023年第9期1649-1661,共13页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：This research is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFF0801604).

摘　　要：The meridional gradient of surface air temperature associated with“Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia”(GradTAE)is closely related to climate anomalies and weather extremes in the mid-low latitudes.However,the Climate Forecast System Version 2(CFSv2)shows poor capability for GradTAE prediction.Based on the year-to-year increment approach,analysis using a hybrid seasonal prediction model for GradTAE in winter(HMAE)is conducted with observed September sea ice over the Barents–Kara Sea,October sea surface temperature over the North Atlantic,September soil moisture in southern North America,and CFSv2 forecasted winter sea ice over the Baffin Bay,Davis Strait,and Labrador Sea.HMAE demonstrates good capability for predicting GradTAE with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.84,and the percentage of the same sign is 88%in cross-validation during 1983−2015.HMAE also maintains high accuracy and robustness during independent predictions of 2016−20.Meanwhile,HMAE can predict the GradTAE in 2021 well as an experiment of routine operation.Moreover,well-predicted GradTAE is useful in the prediction of the large-scale pattern of“Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia”and has potential to enhance the skill of surface air temperature occurrences in the east of China.

关 键 词：warm Arctic-cold Eurasia year-to-year increment climate prediction sea ice SST 

分 类 号：P457.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]