基于SIQR的新冠肺炎疫情动态传播模型研究  

Study on Dynamic Transmission Model of COVID-19 Based on SIQR

作　　者：钞寅康 龚立雄[1] 雷彬文 CHAO Yinkang;GONG Lixiong;LEI Binwen(School of Mechanical Engineering,Hubei Univ.of Tech.,Wuhan 430068,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北工业大学机械工程学院,湖北武汉430068

出　　处：《湖北工业大学学报》2023年第4期39-43,共5页Journal of Hubei University of Technology

摘　　要：以武汉新冠疫情为案例,运用系统动力学理论,基于传统SIR模型进行改进,增加了潜伏期、感染率、规避系数、隔离率、治愈率、死亡率等参数,建立有限区域内的新冠肺炎疫情传播演化SIQR系统动力学模型,研究和分析疫情传播路径以及传播影响因素。参考相关政府部门对武汉的疫情采取了强力控制措施,有效阻断疫情传播等实际情况,对新冠疫情的传播演化机理进行分析和验证,证明了本文SIQR模型的优越性。通过多因素影响分析及讨论,结果表明:规避系数大于0.5时能明显遏制疫情扩散;病毒潜伏期的增加会提高疫情不可控性;隔离率的增加对疫情有抑制作用但同时会增加疫情防控时长;疫苗覆盖率达到90%以上能形成人群免疫屏障。最后在实验分析基础上,提出新冠疫情的预防及控制方案,对于重大公共疫情的控制与防治具有重大意义。In this paper,taking the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan as an example,using the system dynamics theory,improvement based on the traditional SIR model,the latency,infection rate,evasive coefficient,quarantine rate,cure rate,death rate and other parameters were improved,and the SIQR system dynamics model of Covid-19 epidemic spread and evolution in a limited area was established to study and analyze the epidemic spread path and influencing factors.Based on the fact that relevant government departments have taken strong control measures to effectively block the spread of the epidemic in Wuhan,the transmission and evolution mechanism of the novel coronavirus epidemic has been analyzed and verified,which proves the superiority of the SIQR model in this paper.Through multi-factor analysis and discussion,the results showed that when the avoidance coefficient was greater than 0.5,the spread of the epidemic could be significantly contained.The increase of the incubation period of the virus will increase the uncontrollability of the outbreak;The increase of isolation rate can inhibit the epidemic but at the same time increase the duration of epidemic prevention and control.Vaccine coverage of more than 90 percent can form a population immunity barrier.Finally,based on the experimental analysis,the prevention and control plan of the novel coronavirus is proposed,which is of great significance for the control and prevention of major public epidemics.

关 键 词：SIQR模型 传播演化 规避系数 疫苗覆盖率 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]