光伏发电EPC项目节能收益期决策模型  

Decision Model of Energy Saving Revenue Period of Photovoltaic Power Generation Energy Performance Contracting Project

作　　者：刘进军[1] 高林朝[2] 刘明阳[1] 邢俊敏[1] 刘红才[1] LIU Jinjun;GAO Linchao;LIU Mingyang;XING Junmin;LIU Hongcai(Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Energy Research Institute of Henan Academy of Sciences,Zhengzhou 450008,China)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学,郑州450046 [2]河南省科学院能源研究所有限公司,郑州450008

出　　处：《建筑节能（中英文）》2023年第7期114-118,144,共6页Building Energy Efficiency

基　　金：河南省重点科技攻关项目(182102210075,132102310057)。

摘　　要：随着我国可再生能源技术的不断发展,合同能源管理在节能服务领域得到了广泛应用。科学合理的节能收益期决策是合同能源管理项目成功实施的关键所在。以光伏发电合同能源管理项目为研究对象,结合光伏发电行业不确定性特征,先基于净现值理论,构建合同能源管理项目节能收益期可行区间决策模型,再基于博弈论,构建节能收益期Nash讨价还价决策模型,引入风险因子,求得Nash均衡解,最后用实例对决策模型进行验证。研究显示,节能收益期的长短与项目合作双方对风险的偏好程度正相关。决策模型实现了项目风险与收益的均衡,提高了节能收益期决策的准确性和合理性。研究结论为光伏发电合同能源管理项目的节能收益期决策和谈判提供理论依据。With the continuous development of renewable energy technology in China,the energy performance contracting has been widely used in the field of energy saving services.Scientific and reasonable energy saving revenue period decision is the key to the successful implementation of the energy performance contracting project.Taking photovoltaic power generation energy performance contracting project as the research object,combined with the uncertain characteristics of photovoltaic power generation industry,based on the net present value theory first,build the feasible interval decision model of energy saving revenue period of the energy performance contracting project,and then based on game theory,Nash bargaining decision model is built for energy saving revenue period,introducing risk factor,to obtain Nash equilibrium solution.Finally,the decision model is verified by an example.The length of energy saving revenue period is positively correlated with the degree of risk preference of project partners.The decision model realizes the balance between project risks and benefits,and improves the accuracy and rationality of the energy saving revenue period decision.The conclusion provides a theoretical basis for the decision-making and negotiation of energy saving revenue period of photovoltaic power generation energy performance contracting project.

关 键 词：光伏发电 合同能源管理 节能收益期 Nash讨价还价理论 

分 类 号：TU-9[建筑科学]