台风摩羯(1814)引发山东持续性强降水的阶段性特征及其成因分析  

Periodic Characteristics and Cause Analysis of Continuous Heavy Rainfall Induced by Typhoon Yagi(1814)in Shandong

作　　者：孙莎莎[1] 陈博宇 孙军 孙艺 刁秀广[1] 王皘 SUN Shasha;CHEN Boyu;SUN Jun;SUN Yi;DIAO Xiuguang;WANG Qian(Shandong Meteorological Observatory,Jinan 250031,Shandong,China;National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081,China;Yantai Weather Modification Office,Yantai 264003,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象台,山东济南250031 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081 [3]烟台市人民政府人工影响天气办公室,山东烟台264003

出　　处：《高原气象》2023年第4期962-977,共16页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-061);中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项子项目(YBGJXM(2020)3A-03);环渤海区域科技协同创新基金项目(QYXM201707);山东省气象局预报员专项(SDYBY2021-05)。

摘　　要：利用中国气象局热带气旋资料中心的最佳路径、高空与地面观测、分钟级降水、雷达、卫星及再分析资料对1814号北上类登陆台风摩羯所引发的山东持续性强降水天气过程进行了分析。结果显示:摩羯影响期间,暴雨阶段性特征显著,台风本体降水及冷空气与台风相互作用所形成的降水远强于其他阶段。台风本体降水阶段暴雨范围大于冷空气与台风相互作用阶段,但雨强弱于冷空气与台风相互作用阶段。台风本体降水阶段低质心热带降水系统特征明显,而冷空气与台风相互作用阶段,高质心锋面降水特征明显。摩羯北上期间,水汽输送条件较常年显著异常,有利于持续性强降水发生。台风本体降水阶段主要强降水落区位于台风前进方向,冷空气与台风相互作用阶段主要强降水落区位于台风前进方向及右侧的螺旋雨带上。低空急流顶端、对流层中低层垂直风切变及地面辐合线决定了强降水落区。台风移动方向与等熵位涡长轴方向、高值中心移动方向一致。移动过程中,等熵位涡明显增高,这是由于高位涡冷空气向低层传输导致。摩羯登陆后期,螺旋雨带发展,中小尺度对流特征显著,与冷空气侵入锋生作用及地形分布有关。一方面冷空气与台风相互作用阶段锋生明显,另一方面山东的中东部地区高海拔地形抬升作用配合天气系统的锋生作用有利于对流系统发生增强,从而促进螺旋雨带的发展。The Best Track from China Meteorological Administration(CMA)tropical cyclone database as well as the observation data of high level and surface stations,minute precipitation,radar,satellite and reanalysis data were used to analyze both periodic characteristics and cause of continuous heavy rainfall induced by the“north going”landing Typhoon Yagi(1814)in Shandong.The results show:During the period under the influence of Yagi,the torrential rain has distinct phases.The precipitation of typhoon body and the cold air and typhoon interaction are much stronger than those of two other stages.The precipitation formed by the typhoon body has larger range but weaker intensity than that of the heavy rain phase when the cold air interacted with the typhoon.The typhoon body precipitation phase has low-centroid tropical precipitation features,while the cold air and typhoon interaction phase shows high-centroid frontal precipitation features.During the northward movement of Yagi,the water vapor transport conditions were significantly abnormal compared with those of normal years,which was favorable for persistent heavy rainfall.During the typhoon body precipitation stage,the main heavy precipitation area is located in the forward direction of the typhoon,while in the cold air interacted with the typhoon stage,the main heavy precipitation area is located in the direction of the typhoon and the spiral rain band on the right side of Yagi.The top of low-level jet,vertical wind shear in the low and middle troposphere and convergence line above ground surface together determine where the main heavy precipitation area occurs.The moving direction of typhoon is consistent with both the long axis direction of isentropic potential vorticity(IPV)and the moving direction of high value center of IPV.During the typhoon movement,the IPV has a significant increase,which is caused by the transfer from the higher-level atmosphere that has high potential vorticity(PV)cold air to the lower level atmosphere.During the later period of Yagi landfal

关 键 词：台风摩羯 暴雨 冷空气 山东 

分 类 号：P458.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]