大兴安岭森林火灾风险评估  

Assessment of Forest Fire Risk for Daxing’anling

作　　者：刘嘉雷 田晓瑞[1] 宗学政 彭玉娴 赵文太 Liu Jialei;Tian Xiaorui;Zong Xuezheng;Peng Yuxian;Zhao Wentai(Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091,China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Shandong Forestry Protection and Development Service Center,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所,国家林业和草原局森林保护学重点实验室,北京100091 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]山东省林业保护和发展服务中心,济南250014

出　　处：《陆地生态系统与保护学报》2023年第3期77-88,共12页Terrestrial Ecosystem and Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42171082)。

摘　　要：【目的】基于火模拟结果构建森林火灾风险的评估框架,从火发生可能性、暴露性和火影响3个方面综合评估森林火灾风险。【方法】以黑龙江省大兴安岭地区为研究对象,利用Burn-P3模型模拟燃烧概率和潜在火行为。根据火险期火严重程度(SSR),把研究时段分为低、中、高3个SSR情景,分析不同SSR情景下的燃烧概率、潜在火行为和森林火灾风险。【结果】低、中、高SSR情景下燃烧概率的均值分别为0.0184、0.0358和0.0570。高SSR情景下,燃烧概率高和很高的区域共占总面积的9.8%。低、中、高SSR情景下的火强度分别为687、1276和3469 kW/m^(2),蔓延速度分别为1.43、1.82和4.43 m/min。综合分析火灾风险指数分别为0.12、0.44和1.25。不同的SSR情景下落叶针叶林的火灾风险最高。【结论】不同的SSR情景下燃烧概率差异显著,火强度、蔓延速度和森林火灾风险随SSR等级升高而增加。与中SSR情景相比,高SSR情景下的火强度和蔓延速度增加显著。森林火灾风险随SSR等级升高而增大,高SSR情景下的森林火灾风险比中SSR情景显著增大,但中SSR情景下的森林火灾风险与低SSR情景的差异不显著。【Objective】A framework of forest fire risk assessment was constructed to comprehensively assess fire risk from three aspects,such as fire likelihood,exposure,and fire impact based on the fire simulations.【Method】The research took the Daxing’anling as study area and simulated its burn probability and potential fire behavior by using Burn-P3 model.Based on the seasonal severity rating(SSR)of each fire season,the study period was divided into low,moderate,and high SSR scenarios.The burn probability,potential fire behavior characteristics and forest fire risk were analyzed for every SSR scenario.【Result】The average burn probability under low,moderate and high SSR scenarios were 0.0184,0.0358,and 0.0570,respectively.The areas with high and very high burn probabilities accounted for 9.8%of the total area under the high SSR scenario.The fire intensity were 687,1276,and 3469 kW/m^(2) for low,moderate,and high SSR scenarios,respectively.The spread speed were 1.43,1.82,and 4.43 m/min,respectively.Based on comprehensive analysis,the forest fire risk indices were 0.12,0.44,and 1.25 for low,moderate,and high SSR scenarios,respectively.Deciduous coniferous forests had the highest fire risk among all types under all SSR scenarios.【Conclusion】Burn probability varies significantly among the SSR scenarios.Fire intensity,spread speed,and forest fire risk increased with SSR level up.Compared with the moderate SSR scenario,the fire intensity and spread speed under the high SSR scenario increased significantly.The forest fire risk under the high SSR scenario was significantly higher than that of moderate SSR scenario.However,the forest fire risk did not show significant difference between the moderate and low SSR scenario.

关 键 词：森林火灾风险评估 燃烧概率 SSR情景 可燃物类型 大兴安岭 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学]