基于贵州省土地变化的碳储量演变及其脆弱性特征分析  

Analysis of Carbon Stock Evolution and Its Vulnerability Characteristics Based on Land Use Change in Guizhou Province

作　　者：陈大蓉 周旭[1] 杨胜天[2] 裴宇 胡玉雪 胡锋 Chen Darong;Zhou Xu;Yang Shengtian;Pei Yu;Hu Yuxue;Hu Feng(School of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang,Guizhou 550025,China;Institute of Water Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100000,China;Ecological Meteorology and Satellite Remote Sensing Center of Guizhou Province,Guiyang,Guizhou 550002,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100000 [3]贵州省生态气象和卫星遥感中心,贵州贵阳550002

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2023年第3期301-309,共9页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会—贵州省人民政府喀斯特科学研究中心项目“喀斯特生物多样性形成和维持的钙依赖机制及其应用基础”(U1812401);贵州省科学技术项目([2017]1131);贵州省科技支撑项目([2017]2855)。

摘　　要：[目的]分析贵州省生态系统碳储量时空分布格局、演变特征及其对土地利用转移的响应,研究各县域生态系统碳储量服务的脆弱性,为贵州省区域土地利用管理决策及“双碳”目标的实现提供科学依据和参考。[方法]运用InVEST模型和潜在影响指数(PI)分析贵州省2000—2020年碳储量变化特征和生态系统碳储存服务的脆弱性。[结果]①近20 a间贵州省土地利用结构发生显著变化,前10 a和后10 a分别有14.10%,17.29%的土地发生转移,耕地是建设用地扩张的主要来源。②贵州省20 a间生态系统碳储量减少2.40×10^(7)t,林地的缩减和建设用地的扩张是碳储量减少的主要原因。③贵州省碳储量Moran’s I指数均大于0,空间分布具有显著的空间正相关性和集聚性。冷热点分析显示碳储量热点分布较为分散,冷点分布集中稳定。④贵州省前10 a和后10 a PI指数分别为-1.27和-0.15,脆弱性有所改善。县域间脆弱性存在空间差异,边缘县域负向影响显著,20 a间81.82%的县脆弱性降低。[结论]贵州省林地的转出和建设用地的扩张对碳储量和碳储量服务脆弱性影响显著,未来应优化土地利用结构,加强规划管理。[Objective]The spatial and temporal distribution pattern and evolution characteristics of ecosystem carbon storage,its response to land use change,and the vulnerability of ecosystem carbon storage service in each county of Guizhou Province were analyzed in order to provide a scientific basis and reference for regional land use management decision-making and to realize the“dual carbon”goal.[Methods]The InVEST model and the potential impact(PI)index were used to analyze the characteristics of carbon stock changes and the vulnerability of ecosystem carbon storage services in Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2020.[Results]①Land use type in Guizhou Province changed significantly during the last 20 years.14.10%and 17.29%of the land changed type in the first 10 years and the last 10 years,respectively.Cultivated land was the main source of construction land expansion.②Ecosystem carbon storage in Guizhou Province decreased by 0.24 billion tons in the past 20 years.Forest land reductions and construction land expansion were the main reasons for carbon storage reduction.③All Moran’s I indices of ecosystem carbon stocks in Guizhou Province exceeded 0,indicating significant positive spatial correlation and agglomeration.The hot spot/cold-spot analysis showed that the distribution of carbon stock hot spots was relatively decentralized while the distribution of cold spots was centralized and stable.④The PI indices for Guizhou Province in the first and second 10-year periods were-1.27 and-0.15,respectively,indicating an improvement in vulnerability.There were spatial differences in vulnerability among counties,with significant negative effects in the peripheral counties.The vulnerability of 81.82%of the counties decreased in 20 years.[Conclusion]The transfer of forest land and the expansion of construction land in Guizhou Province had a significant impact on carbon stocks and the vulnerability of carbon stock services.In the future,land use structure should be optimized,and planning and management should be strengthe

关 键 词：土地利用变化 碳储量 InVEST模型 脆弱性 贵州省 

分 类 号：P96[天文地球—自然地理学] X87[环境科学与工程—环境工程]