考虑多目标的灾后伤员转运与应急医疗物资分配研究  

Casualty transport and emergency medical material distribution considering multi-objective after disasters

作　　者：李晓萍[1] 卢葛锋 胡青蜜 LI Xiaoping;LU Gefeng;HU Qingmi(School of Economics and Management,Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang 212100,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏科技大学经济管理学院,江苏镇江212100

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2023年第4期127-138,共12页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71902074);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72271110);江苏省研究生创新计划项目(KYCX21_3429)。

摘　　要：自然灾害发生后,往往有大量的伤员需要救治,所以选择合适的地点建立临时医院并且为不同受伤程度的伤员制定转运计划,提高伤员的生存概率是灾后应急救援的关键。针对灾后伤员转运及应急医疗物资分配问题,综合考虑伤员转运车辆数量有限、应急医疗物资到达临时医院的时间对伤员生存概率的影响、灾区道路状况和临时医院容量限制等因素,构建了最大化伤员总生存概率和最大化车辆行驶道路安全性的灾后伤员转运和应急医疗物资分配双目标模型,设计多目标粒子群算法对模型进行求解。最后,通过案例分析和对关键参数进行敏感度分析,验证模型的有效性,得到相关结论可为灾后应急管理决策提供参考。研究结果表明,当应急医疗物资无法在伤员转运至临时医院之前到达时,综合考虑伤员转运与应急医疗物资分配,更能够增大伤员的生存概率。In the aftermath of natural disasters,there are often a large number of casualties that need to be treated,so choosing a suitable location to set up a temporary hospital and planning for the transfer of casualties with different levels of injury to improve their chances of survival is the key to post-disaster emergency response.This paper aims at the problem of casualty transport and emergency medical materials distribution after disasters,a dual objective model of casualty transport and emergency medical materials distribution is constructed to maximize the overall survival probability of the injured and maximize road safety for vehicle driving,taking into account the limited number of casualty transfer vehicles,the impact of the arrival time of emergency medical materials to temporary hospitals on the survival probability of casualties,road conditions in the disaster areas and the capacity limitation of temporary hospitals.A multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is designed to solve the model.Finally,through case analysis and sensitivity analysis of key parameters,the effectiveness of the model is verified,and the relevant conclusions can provide reference for post-disaster emergency management decisions.The results show that when emergency medical materials can not arrive before the casualty is transferred to a temporary hospital,a combination of casualty transfer and emergency medical material distribution increases the probability of survival.

关 键 词：灾害 选址-转运 应急医疗物资分配 生存概率 多目标粒子群算法 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]