基于信息熵的重大工程技术创新不确定性测度与应用  

Information Entropy-based Uncertainty Measurement Method of Technology Innovation in Major Projects

作　　者：谢洪涛 牟文芳 郑俊巍[2] 张云华[2] 常凯 Xie Hongtao;Mou Wenfang;Zheng Junwei;Zhang Yunhua;Chang Kai(Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;Railway Engineering Research Institution,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650500 [2]昆明理工大学建工学院,云南昆明月650500 [3]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司铁道建筑研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2023年第13期11-17,共7页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“重大建设工程创新主体行为交互演化与合作涌现:创新网络结构与合作治理的综合作用研究”(72162026);“川藏铁路工程建设与科技创新融合管理”(71942006)。

摘　　要：在识别重大工程技术创新不确定性来源基础上,基于理想功能建立不确定性评价指标,提出基于信息熵的不确定性测度方法,应用该方法对隧道施工机械化配套技术的不确定性进行测度,研究表明,该方法能够客观地体现技术创新在不同维度上的不确定程度;在此基础上,通过相关性分析与因果分析相结合的方法,寻找不确定技术指标背后的共同条件信息,以此为基础不断引入分类指标进行测算,能够有效揭示技术创新项目不确定性的主要影响因素。By quantitative measurement of uncertainty level of technology innovation in mega-project,influential factors can be recognized to provide guidance for innovation management.Uncertainty evaluation indexes were established from the perspective of ideal function based on the identification of resource of uncertainty in technology innovation of mega-project.On this basis,the procedure of uncertainty measurement was put forward.According to the process data of technology innovation,this method was applied to measure the uncertainty in technical innovation of tunnel construction mechanization.The research shows that the information entropy calculated by the proposed approach meets the uncertain character of the innovation project in many aspects.The method of combining correlation analysis and causal analysis is adopted to explore the common condition information,based on which the new classification indexes are introduced for the calculation of uncertainty.This proposed approach can be used to reveal the main influencing factors of the uncertainty of the measured innovation project.

关 键 词：重大工程 技术创新 不确定性 信息熵 

分 类 号：C936[经济管理—管理学] F424.3[建筑科学] TU-9