能源消费结构调整对制造业结构升级的影响——基于制造业细分行业的实证分析  

The influence of Energy Consumption Structure Adjustment on the Upgrading of Manufacturing Structure——Empirical Analysis Based on Manufacturing Industry Segments

作　　者：邹璇[1] 杨旭 蒋佳霖 ZOU Xuan;YANG Xu;JIANG Jia-lin(School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha 410079)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,长沙410079

出　　处：《软科学》2023年第7期1-9,共9页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20FJYB038、13&ZD156);湖南省自然科学基金面上项目(2022JJ30181)。

摘　　要：探究了能源消费结构对制造业结构的技术效应、价格效应和空间效应等作用机制,基于2010-2019年中国30个省市的面板数据,采用空间计量模型、工具变量法等做了实证检验。研究发现:能源消费结构调整对制造业结构升级具有显著促进作用,且结果稳健。机制检验表明,能源消费结构调整具有显著的空间负向溢出效应,也会通过技术溢出和技术研发对制造业结构升级产生影响,但价格效应的作用机制不明显。进一步讨论发现,降低煤炭、石油和天然气的消费比重,能够促进制造业结构升级,而提升新能源消费比重对制造业升级的促进作用微弱;能源消费结构调整对中西部地区制造业结构升级的促进作用更强,时段层面上体现出边际效应递减趋势;通过优化人力资本水平、能源价格等外部环境,能源消费结构调整的促进作用会进一步增强。This paper explores the mechanism of energy consumption structures technical effect,price effect and spatial effect on manufacturing structure.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(cities,districts)in China from 2010 to 2019,it makes an empirical test by using spatial econometric model and instrumental variable method.Results show that the adjustment of energy consumption structure can significantly promote the upgrading of manufacturing structure,and the conclusion is steady.The mechanism test shows that the adjustment of energy consumption structure has significant spatial negative spillover effect,and it will also affect the upgrading of manufacturing structure through technology spillover and technology research and development,but the mechanism of price effect is not obvious.Further discussion shows that reducing the consumption proportion of coal,oil and natural gas can promote the upgrading of manufacturing structure,while increasing the consumption proportion of new energy has a weak effect on the upgrading of manufacturing industry.The adjustment of energy consumption structure plays a stronger role in promoting the upgrading of manufacturing structure in the central and western regions,and the marginal effect is decreasing at the time level.By optimizing the external environment such as human capital level and energy price,the promoting role of energy consumption structure adjustment will be further enhanced.

关 键 词：能源消费结构 制造业结构 技术效应 价格效应 空间效应 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学] F407