基于Joinpoint回归模型的2011—2022年苏州市肺结核流行趋势分析  

Analysis of the trends in the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Suzhoucity from 2011 to 2022 based on Joinpoint regression model

作　　者：王斐娴 崔彩岩 蒋骏[1] 张晓龙[1] WANG Feixian;CUI Caiyan;JIANG Jun;ZHANG Xiaolong(Tuberculosis Control Institute,Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Suzhou 215004,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州市疾病预防控制中心结核病防制所,江苏苏州215004

出　　处：《东南大学学报（医学版）》2023年第4期566-571,共6页Journal of Southeast University(Medical Science Edition)

基　　金：苏州市卫生科技项目(GWZX202001)。

摘　　要：目的:分析2011—2022年苏州市肺结核的发病情况和流行趋势,为制定防控策略和措施提供科学依据。方法:收集2011—2022年苏州市肺结核登记资料,应用Joinpoint回归模型,利用年均变化百分比(average annual percentage change, AAPC)和年度变化百分比(annual percentage change, APC)评价苏州市肺结核发病特征的时间变化趋势。结果:2011—2022年苏州市肺结核标化报告发病率为29.21/10万,年均递减率为5.7%(P<0.05),其中2011—2015年每年下降4.5%(P<0.05),2015—2019年每年增加0.4%(P>0.05),2019—2022年每年下降14.6%(P<0.05)。按性别和年龄分层,2011—2022年苏州市男性肺结核总体标化报告发病率年均递减最大的年龄段是25~<35岁(AAPC=-9.1%,P<0.05),其次是45~<55岁(AAPC=-5.9%,P<0.05),而下降率最小的是≥65岁(AAPC=-4.8%,P<0.05),且呈现随年龄增大,递减率降低的趋势;女性仅在25~<35岁年龄段有下降趋势(AAPC=-8.1%,P<0.05)。25~<35岁年龄段肺结核的总体标化报告发病率、男性标化报告发病率和女性标化报告发病率在2018—2022年期间的年度递减率分别为18.5%(P<0.05)、19.8%(P<0.05)和17.3%(P<0.05)。结论:2011—2022年苏州市肺结核疫情呈现流行下降趋势,但须重点关注女性和老年人群,对他们应采取针对性防控措施。Objective:To analyze the incidence and trends of pulmonary tuberculosis in Suzhou city from 2011 to 2022,and to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of prevention and control strategies and measures.Methods:The data of pulmonary tuberculosis in Suzhou city from 2011 to 2022 were collected,and the average annual percentage change(AAPC)and annual percentage change(APC)were used to evaluate the temporal trends of tuberculosis in Suzhou city by applying Joinpoint regression model.Results:The standardized reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Suzhou city was 29.21/100000 in 2011-2022,with an annual average decrease of 5.7%(P<0.05),i.e,an annual decrease of 4.5%(P<0.05)from 2011 to 2015,an annual increase of 0.4%(P>0.05)from 2015 to 2019,and an annual decrease of 14.6%from 2019 to 2022(P<0.05).Stratified by gender and age,the age group with the greatest annual decline in overall standardized reported incidence of TB among men in Suzhou during 2011-2022 was 25-<35 years old(AAPC=-9.1%,P<0.05),followed by 45-<55 years old(AAPC=-5.9%,P<0.05),and the smallest decrease was≥65 years old(AAPC=-4.8%,P<0.05),While women only showed a decreasing trend in the 25-<35 age group(AAPC=-8.1%,P<0.05).The annual decreasing rates of the overall standardized incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis,male standardized incidence rate,and female standardized incidence rate in the 25-<35 age group were 18.5%(P<0.05),19.8%(P<0.05),and 17.3%(,P<0.05)during 2018-2022,respectively.Conclusion:The epidemic of tuberculosis in Suzhou city showed an epidemic decline from 2011 to 2022,and it is necessary to focus on female and elderly populations and to take targeted prevention and control measures.

关 键 词：肺结核 Joinpoint回归模型 流行趋势分析 苏州 

分 类 号：R521[医药卫生—内科学]