玉米价格、农地流转租金与农业产业结构研究  

Corn Price,Rural Land Transfer Rent and Agricultural Industry Structure Research

作　　者：孙云飞 吴学兵[1,2] 袁玉青 SUN Yun-fei;WU Xue-bing;YUAN Yu-qing(Economics and Management School,Yangtze University,Jingzhou 434023;Development Research Institute of Yangtze River Economic Zone,Yangtze University,Jingzhou 434023,China)

机构地区：[1]长江大学经济与管理学院,湖北荆州434023 [2]长江大学长江经济带发展研究院,湖北荆州434023

出　　处：《玉米科学》2023年第3期174-180,共7页Journal of Maize Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJCZH190);湖北省教育厅哲学社会科学研究项目(19Y037)。

摘　　要：基于2005-2019年国内19省(市)面板数据,构建PVAR模型探究玉米价格、农地流转租金与农业产业结构之间的动态关系。结果发现,脉冲响应分析表明,玉米价格、农地流转租金与农业产业结构都具有一定经济惯性,能实现自我促进,且3个变量之间具有互相促进作用,有些促进作用或力度比较小,或具有滞后性。方差分析表明,玉米价格变化的80%以上可由其自身解释,农地流转租金是影响农业产业结构的重要因素之一。在确保粮食安全下,探索玉米价格可变化区间释放农村经济活力,既要突出省域特色,又要整合资源突出合力的作用,稳步推进土地流转,推动农业产业结构逐步升级。Based on the panel data of 19 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2019,a PVAR model was constructed to explore the dynamic relationship between corn prices,rural land transfer rents and agricultural indus⁃try structure.The impulse response analysis showed that corn price,rural land transfer rent and agricultural industry structure all had certain economic inertia and could achieve self-promotion,and the three variables had mutual pro⁃motion effects.Some of the promotion effects were relatively small,or with hysteresis.In addition,the analysis of variance showed that more than 80%of the changes in corn price could be explained by itself,and rural land trans⁃fer rent was one of the important factors to affect the structure of the agricultural industry.In view of these,while en⁃suring food security,exploring the variable range of corn prices to release the vitality of the rural economy should not only highlight the characteristics of the province,but also integrate resources to highlight the role of joint forces,steadily promote land transfer,and promote the gradual upgrading of the agricultural industry structure.

关 键 词：玉米 价格 农地流转租金 农业产业结构 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学]