基于改进多层感知机的电网运行风险评估方法  

A Method to Assess Power Grid Operation Risk Based on Improved Multi-Layer Perceptron

作　　者：郝蛟 林宏 李雨森 武婕 张建国[2] 孟琦 HAO Jiao;LIN Hong;LI Yusen;WU Jie;ZHANG Jianguo;MENG Qi(Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau Co.Ltd,Shenzhen 518000,Guangdong Province,China;School of Information and Communications Engineering,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,Shaanxi Province,China;Xingtang Telecommunications Technology Co.Ltd.,Haidian District,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳供电局有限公司,广东省深圳市518000 [2]西安交通大学信息与通信工程学院,陕西省西安市710049 [3]兴唐通信科技有限公司行业中心,北京市海淀区100191

出　　处：《现代电力》2023年第4期474-483,共10页Modern Electric Power

摘　　要：传统的电网运行风险评估方法随着电网规模的扩大已逐渐不能满足实时性需求,已有的基于机器学习技术的风险评估方法又没有考虑真实系统中的样本不平衡问题。提出了一种基于改进多层感知机(multi-layer perceptron,MLP)的电网运行风险评估方法。基于IEEE-RTS79可靠性测试节点系统生成风险数据样本,从电压越限、潮流过载、失负荷率及潮流转移度4个维度建立了1套可以表征电网当前运行状态及相对状态变化影响的指标体系,来量化电网运行风险并根据风险值对样本添加标签,构建电网风险数据集;考虑真实系统中样本不平衡的情况,引入多种样本平衡方法,并通过特征选择和主成分分析法对数据降维,最终使用改进的多层感知机模型训练样本,得到电网运行风险评估计算模型。在提高训练速度的同时,加强了对电力数据中非线性规则的表征能力,可以快速得到风险评估结果。Along with the scale expansion of power grid traditional operation risk assessment methods gradually can not satisfy real-time requirement,and in existing risk assessment methods based on machine learning technology the imbalanced sample in the real system has not been considered.For this reason,based on improved multi-layer perceptron(MLP)a method to assess power grid operation risk was proposed.Based on IEEE-RTS7 the risk data sample was generated,and according to four aspects,i.e.,voltage out-of-limit,power flow overload,loss of load probability and power flow transferring,an index system,which could characterize current operating state of power grid and the influence of relative state change,was established to quantize the risk of power grid operation and according to the value-at-risk the risk data sample was labeled to construct power grid risk data set.Considering the sample unbalance in real power grid,multi sample balance methods were led in and by means of feature selection and principal component analysis(PCA)the data dimension reduction was performed.Finally,the sample was trained by the improved MLP model to obtain power grid operating risk assessment and calculation model.Using the obtained model,while the training speed was accelerated,the representational ability for the nolinear rule in power data was intensified,thus,the result of risk assessment could be obtained rapidly.

关 键 词：智能电网 风险评估 多层感知机(MLP) 不平衡样本 风险指标 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]