WOFOST模型在评估气候变化对粮食生产影响方面的研究进展  

Research progress of assessing the impacts of climate change on grain production by the WOFOST model

作　　者：王萌萌 董智强 李楠[1,3,4] 李曼华 陈辰[1,3,4] WANG Mengmeng;DONG Zhiqiang;LI Nan;LI Manhua;CHEN Chen(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong,Jinan 250031,China;Dezhou Meteorological Bureau,Dezhou 253078,China;Shandong Climate Center,Jinan 250031,China;CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change,Beijing 100193,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东济南250031 [2]德州市气象局,山东德州253078 [3]山东省气候中心,山东济南250031 [4]中国气象局-中国农业大学农业应对气候变化联合实验室,北京100193

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2023年第3期9-19,共11页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2018BD024);山东省气象局气象科学技术研究项目(2022sdqxz03,2017sdqxz02);“十三五”山东重大气象工程项目(鲁发改农经〔2017〕97号)。

摘　　要：近年来国内外学者采用不同的方法评估气候变化对粮食生产的影响,其中机理模型评价方法是运用较多的方法之一。WOFOST(WOrld FOod STudies)模型由于其机理性强、源代码开放、参数调整较为简便等优势,已经在相关研究中得到广泛应用。该模型以不同作物生长发育的机理过程为依据,经过适用性验证后,可用于粮食作物气候生产潜力评估和气象灾害影响评价;结合历史气候资料与未来气候情景数据,可定量评价过去及未来气候变化对粮食生产的影响。通过介绍WOFOST模型的基本原理、运行机制、参数设定与参数本地化等相关方法,系统总结该模型在评估气候变化对粮食生产影响方面的研究进展,并指出现有研究存在的不足,以期为未来开展相关研究工作提供参考。In recent years,domestic and foreign scholars assess the impacts of climate change on grain production with different methods,and crop mechanism model is one of the widely used methods.With the characteristics of strong mechanism,open source code,and relatively simple way to adjust parameters,the WOFOST(WOrld FOod STudies)model has played an important role in related researches.Based on the growth mechanism of different crops,this model could be used to assess the climatic potential productivity and the impacts of meteorological disasters after applicability verification.Combined with the historical climate data and the future climate scenario data,this model could also be used to quantitatively assess the impacts of the past and future climate change on grain production.On this basis,the general information of the WOFOST model is introduced,including its basic principle,operating mechanism,parameter setting,parameter optimization methods and so on.The research progress of assessing the impacts of climate change on grain production by the WOFOST model is systematically summarized,and the shortcomings of the existing researches are pointed out,hoping to provide reference for future researches.

关 键 词：气候变化 WOFOST模型 粮食生产 影响解析 适应决策 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]