2015—2022年苏州市学生肺结核病疫情变化趋势  

Trends in incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis among students in Suzhou City from 2015 to 2022

作　　者：崔彩岩 蒋骏[1] 张晓龙[1] 李云[1] 王斐娴 刘巧[2] CUI Cai-Yan;JIANG Jun;ZHANG Xiao-Long;LI Yun;WANG Fei-Xian;LIU Qiao(Suzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangsu Suzhou 215100,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州市疾病预防控制中心,江苏苏州215100 [2]江苏省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《江苏预防医学》2023年第3期278-280,共3页Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(82003516);苏州市卫生科技项目(GWZX202001)。

摘　　要：目的了解苏州市学生肺结核病疫情特点和变化趋势,为学校结核病疫情防治提供依据。方法收集和整理2015—2022年苏州市学生肺结核病疫情处置数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析疫情变化趋势。结果2015—2022年苏州市共发生学生肺结核病疫情1065起,发现肺结核患者1263例,年均报告发病率为8.40/10万,低于全人群(28.86/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=2077.13,P<0.01)。2015—2019年学生报告发病率年度变化百分比(APC)为12.60%,差异无统计学意义(t=2.60,P=0.10);2019—2022年报告发病率APC为-26.90%,呈下降趋势(t=-4.00,P<0.01)。所辖市(区)报告发病率昆山市最高(10.06/10万),太仓市(3.27/10万)最低,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=111.20,P<0.01);昆山市2018—2022年报告发病率年均下降25.40%(t=-4.60,P<0.01),太仓市2015—2020年报告发病率年均上升40.90%(t=3.70,P<0.01)。不同教育阶段报告发病率,技工学校最高(38.43/10万),幼儿园最低(0.28/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=2593.74,P<0.01);2015—2020年技工学校肺结核病报告发病率年均升高52.0%(t=3.60,P<0.01)。结论苏州市2015—2022年学生肺结核病疫情总体呈下降趋势,但仍存在聚集性疫情风险,需关注重点地区和重点学校的结核病防控工作。Objective To investigate the incidence and changing trends of pulmonary tuberculosis among students in Suzhou City,so as to provide insights into school tuberculosis control.Methods The responses to epidemics of pulmonary tuberculosis among students in Suzhou City from 2015 to 2022 were collected,and the trends in incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis were evaluated using a Joinpoint regression model.Results A total of epidemics of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported among students in Suzhou City from 2015 to 2022,and a total of 1263 pulmonary tuberculosis patients were identified,with annual mean reported incidence of 840/105,which was significantly lower than among whole populations(2886/105)(χ^(2)=207713,P<001).There was no significant change in the reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis among students from 2015 to 2019[annual percent change(APC)=1260%,t=260,P=010],and the reported incidence appeared a tendency towards a decline from 2019 to 2022(APC=-2690%,t=-400,P<001).The highest reported incidence was seen in Kunshan City(1006/105),and the lowest found in Taicang City(327/105)(χ^(2)=11120,P<001).The reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis appeared a continuous decline in Kunshan City from 2018 to 2022(APC=-2540%,t=-460,P<001),and the reported incidence appeared a continuous rise in Taicang City from 2015 to 2020(APC=4090%,t=370,P<001).In addition,the highest reported incidence was seen in technical schools(3843/105)and the lowest in kindergartens(028/105)(χ^(2)=259374,P<001),and the reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis appeared a continuous decline in technical schools(APC=5200%,t=360,P<001).Conclusions The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis appeared an overall tendency towards a decline among students in Suzhou City from 2015 to 2022;however,there was still a risk of clusters.Tuberculosis control should be focused on key regions and key schools.

关 键 词：肺结核 学生 发病趋势 回归分析 

分 类 号：R521[医药卫生—内科学]