土地规制对城市创新的影响及传导机制——基于中国280个地级市的经验证据  

Effects and transmission mechanisms of land regulation on city innovation:empirical evidence from 280 prefecture⁃level cities in China

作　　者：许恒周[1] 刘璇 XU Hengzhou;LIU Xuan(College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2023年第8期203-214,共12页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“城市增长边界控制政策实效评估、效应剥离与时限调整研究”(批准号:72074165);国家社会科学基金项目“农户生计多样化视角下农地确权政策实施效果评估及优化路径研究”(批准号:17BJY090)。

摘　　要：土地是保障区域发展的空间载体和基础性要素,其规制效果影响城市的发展方向和创新潜力。因此,该研究在中国特色土地制度下,构建符合中国国情的土地规制评价指标体系,并基于2008—2019年中国280个地级市的面板数据,应用空间杜宾模型及并行多重中介模型实证考察土地规制及其空间策略互动对城市创新的影响及传导机制。研究结果显示:①土地规制对城市创新的影响具有动态性和多重性的特征,二者之间存在“U”型直接影响关系且拐点值为4.833,即低水平土地规制抑制城市创新,而越过阈值的高水平土地规制能够推动城市创新。②地方政府策略互动情形下,土地规制对城市创新的影响具有显著的空间溢出效应,毗邻城市的土地规制对本城市创新的影响呈现与直接效应同趋势的“U”型曲线关系。③土地规制与当地产业结构呈现显著的倒“U”型曲线关系且拐点值为6.214,对毗邻城市产业结构的影响呈现显著的倒“U”型曲线关系,而目前中国城市的土地规制水平尚未达到阈值,产业结构失衡现象抑制了城市创新。④本地土地规制与本地产业集聚之间存在显著的“U”型曲线关系且拐点值为5.750,对毗邻城市产业集聚的空间溢出效应存在相似的“U”型趋势,目前的产业集聚现象促进了城市创新。⑤产业结构和产业集聚是土地规制影响城市创新的重要传导渠道,土地规制通过二者叠加的多重效果影响城市创新,中介情境下土地规制与城市创新的“U”型直接影响拐点值为4.167,借由中介机制能更快实现土地规制对城市创新的促进作用。因此,为强化土地规制对城市创新的支撑作用,需以土地规制合理阈值为约束条件,灵活把控土地管理及产业引导的范围及程度;重视空间策略互动,构建“城市联动”治理模式。Land is the spatial carrier and basic condition for guaranteeing regional development,and its regulation effects tend to affect the direction of long-term development and innovation potential of cities.This paper constructed an evaluation index system of land regulation in line with China’s national conditions from the perspective of the land system with Chinese characteristics.In addition,based on panel data for 280 prefecture-level cities in China from 2008 to 2019,this study used the spatial Durbin model and parallel multiple mediation model to empirically estimate the effects and mechanisms of land regulation and its spatial strategy interaction on city innovation.The results showed that:①The impact of land regulation on city innovation was dynamic and multiplied.In terms of direct effects,land regulation and city innovation presented a typical U-shaped curve relationship with an inflection point of 4.833.Specifically,low-level land regulation significantly reduced city innovation,while high-level land regulation that exceeded the threshold could promote city innovation.②Due to the strategic interactions of local governments,the impact of land regulation on city innovation had a significant spatial spillover effect.The relationship between adjacent urban land regulation and local city innovation followed a similar U-shaped curve to the direct effect.③In terms of indirect effects,the relationship between land regulation and local industrial structure showed an inverted U-shaped curve with an inflection point of 6.214.The spatial spillover effect of land regulation on industrial structures in neighboring cities had the same inverted U-shaped trend.During the study period,the level of land regulation in China had not reached the threshold,and the imbalance of the industrial structure inhibited city innovation.④There was an obvious Ushaped curve relationship between land regulation and local industrial agglomeration,and the inflection point value was 5.750.The spatial spillover effect was the same U-sha

关 键 词：土地规制 城市创新 空间杜宾模型 中介效应 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]