贸易冲击、产业结构变迁与地方政府融资平台债务——传导机制与效应分析  

Trade Shock,Industrial Structure Change and the Debt of LGFVs

作　　者：马丽[1] 武鹏[2] 杨博显 Ma Li;Wu Peng;Yang Boxian(International Business School,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics;Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Science;Department of Economics,Nankai University)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学国际工商学院,650221 [2]中国社会科学院经济研究所,100836 [3]南开大学经济学院,300071

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2023年第8期140-160,共21页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：云南省哲社规划项目(QN202123);国家社科基金青年项目“我国经济持续稳定发展的投资-储蓄-增长机制研究”(18CJL013);国家社会科学基金一般项目“我国经济中长期增长趋势和国际赶超前景研究(2020—2050年)”(18BJL026)的资助支持。

摘　　要：为了进一步识别外部冲击因素对于地方政府融资平台债务增加的影响,本文利用债券募集说明书和跟踪评级报告收集了地方政府融资平台的债务信息以及其他相关数据,并将2008年经济危机作为准自然实验,使用双重差分的研究方法,研究了负向的贸易冲击对我国地方政府融资平台债务的影响。研究结论表明,负向的贸易冲击显著提高了地方政府融资平台的债务,这一效应不仅体现在融资平台发债总额,还体现在融资平台发债次数以及单笔发债规模上。从机制分析上看,地方政府为了缓解负向贸易冲击的影响从而采取的扩张借贷等政策,会使得我国地方政府融资平台债务增加,同时产业结构变迁也是影响我国地方政府债务变化的一个重要因素,因为负向的贸易冲击会导致第二产业占比下降,第二产业占比下降可能会导致地方政府未来偿债能力的下降,进而使得地方政府融资平台出现长期债务增加。此外,通过异质性分析可以发现,负向贸易冲击使得地方政府融资平台债务增加的效应主要存在于金融市场发达的子样本中以及生产率较低、劳动密集型产业集中的子样本中。因此,本文的政策建议是完善我国经济内循环,提高我国的工业化程度并且转型升级,这可以使得我国更好地应对外部风险的冲击,进而降低地方政府融资平台的债务。Based on the debt data collected from the Local Government Funding Vehi-cle's(LGFV)bond raising instructions and tracking rating reports,and taking the 2008 economic crisis as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper explores the impact of negative trade shock on the debt of LGFVs in China.Empirical research shows that,the negative trade shock significantly increased the debt of financing platform.This effect is not only reflected in the total amount of bonds issued,but also in the frequency of issuance and the scale of a single bond.Mechanism analysis shows that,the negative trade shock affected China's industrial structure and led to the reduction of secondary industry,which is one of the reasons for the increase of debt risk.In addition,in order to eliminate the impact of negative trade shocks,the expansion of fiscal policy also increases the debt of LGFVs.Heterogeneity analysis shows that,the effect of negative trade shocks on LGFV’s debt mainly exist in the cities which have developed financial markets,low productivity and labor-intensive industry.Therefore,in order to deal with the impact of external risks better,reduce the debt risk of LGFVs,and maintain the economic growth in the long term,it’s important to improve the internal circulation,increase the degree of industrialization and upgrading.

关 键 词：贸易冲击 地方政府融资平台 债务风险 产业结构变迁 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F121.3[经济管理—产业经济] F832.39F830.42