“后脱贫时代”基于早逝风险的保险扶贫效应研究  

Research on the Poverty Alleviation Effect of Insurance Based on Premature Death Risk in the Post-poverty Era

作　　者：王丽珍[1] 杨喆瑶 廖朴[1] Wang Lizhen;Yang Zheyao;Liao Pu(School of Insurance,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学保险学院,100081

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2023年第8期181-198,220,共19页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“基于区块链技术的小额保险深度精准扶贫机制构建与成效评估研究”(19CJL033);中央财经大学2021年度校级“红色擎,龙马行”教师“思政+”专项支持基金资助项目“保险在脱贫攻坚中的作用效应研究”(SZJ2110)的资助。

摘　　要：保险凭借其独特的优势被广泛应用于扶贫工作中,本文选择早逝风险为切入点,首先分析了我国早逝风险的现状,然后基于多重均衡模型分别构建不包含人寿保险和包含人寿保险的家庭投资消费决策模型,之后利用保险相关数据开展数值模拟,得到不同初始资产水平下家庭资产随时间演变路径以及陷贫概率。研究发现,人寿保险的扶贫效应与家庭初始资产水平有关:只有当家庭资产高于某一阈值时,人寿保险才能够有效缓解家庭因为劳动力早逝而出现的贫困风险,否则甚至可能加剧风险。敏感性分析发现,扶贫效应随着保险金额的增大而增大,随着损失率的降低而相对增强。当损失率较高时,购买人寿保险并不能完全摆脱贫困风险,但确实在一定程度上降低了陷贫概率;随着损失率的降低,人寿保险扶贫方面的相对作用增强,陷贫概率甚至降至零。本文为保险业助力巩固脱贫成果、护航乡村振兴、实现共同富裕提供了理论指导,特别是家庭有必要在保险给付后的“保护期”,尽快将保险金额转化为生产要素,这样才能从根本上摆脱“返贫”问题。Due to its unique benefits,insurance is widely utilised in poverty alleviation.This paper takes risk of early death as its starting point,first analyses the current situation of risk of early death in China,then constructs a household investment and consumption decision model without life insurance and with life insurance on the basis of a multiple equilibrium model,and finally conducts numerical simulations to obtain the path of household assets evolving over time and the probability of falling into poverty under different initial as-set levels.The poverty alleviation effect of life insurance is found to be related to the initial asset level of the household:only when the household assets exceed a certain threshold can life insurance effectively mitigate the poverty risk of the household due to the early death of labor force;otherwise,it may even exacerbate the risk.Sensitivity analysis revealed that the poverty alleviation effect increases with the insurance amount and increases relatively with the loss rate.The purchase of life insurance does not completely eliminate the risk of poverty when the loss rate is high,but it does reduce the probability of falling into poverty to a certain extent;as the loss rate decreases,the relative role of life insurance in poverty alleviation increases,and the probability of falling into poverty is reduced to zero.This paper provides theoretical guidance for the insurance industry to assist in consolidating the results of poverty eradication,fostering rural revitalization,and achieving common pros-perity,particularly the need for families to convert the insurance amount into production factors as soon as possible during the"protection period"after the insurance payout,so as to eradicate the"return to poverty"phenomenon.This is the only solution to the"return to poverty"problem.

关 键 词：早逝风险 人寿保险 多重均衡模型 扶贫效应 乡村振兴 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险] F323.8