2004至2019年西藏自治区肺结核发病率与区域经济发展的动态关系分析  

The dynamic relationship between pulmonary tuberculosis morbidity rate and regional economic development in Tibet Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2019

作　　者：王柳 刘阳 胡志毅[1] 罗勇军 WANG Liu;LIU Yang;HU Zhiyi;LUO Yongjun(School of Geography and Tourism,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing,401331,China;Department of Military Medical Geography,Army Medical Service Training Base,Army Medical University,Chongqing,400038,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆401331 [2]陆军军医大学陆军卫勤训练基地军事医学地理学教研室,重庆400038

出　　处：《当代医学》2023年第17期11-15,共5页Contemporary Medicine

基　　金：国家科技部第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究专题(2019QZKK0607);2021年度军队卫勤保障能力创新与生成专项计划(No.21QQ001);军队生物安全建设计划(No.A3702022001)。

摘　　要：目的探讨2004至2019年西藏自治区肺结核发病率(PTMR)与区域经济发展的动态关系。方法根据2004至2019年西藏自治区的国内生产总值(GDP)、医疗保健支出(HCMS)、人均可支配收入(PCDI)与PTMR数据,构建向量自回归(VAR)模型,探讨PTMR与西藏自治区经济发展因素的动态关系。结果HCMS和PCDI是PTMR降低的格兰杰原因,GDP不是PTMR降低的格兰杰原因,GDP、HCMS、PCDI均能对PTMR产生中长期的正向影响,10期时贡献度分别为0.21%、74.38%、16.18%。结论经济发展因素在降低PTMR方面可发挥积极作用,但受经济发展本身的负面因素和其他因素(如医疗资源短缺)等影响,仍需进一步努力遏制结核病的流行蔓延。Objective To explore the dynamic relationship between the pulmonary tuberculosis morbidity rate(PTMR)and regional economic development in Tibet Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2019.Methods According to the data of gross domestic product(GDP),health care and medical services(HCMS),per capita disposable income(PCDI)and PTMR in Tibet Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2019,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model was constructed to explore the dynamic response relationship between the incidence of tuberculosis and the economic development factors in Tibet Autonomous Region.Result HCMS and PCDI were granger causes of PTMR reduction,while GDP was not Granger causes of PTAR reduction,GDP,HCMS and PCDI all had positive effects on PTMR in the long term,and their contributions were 0.21%,74.38%and 16.18%,respectively.Conclusion Economic development plays positive role in reducing the reported pulmonary tuberculosis morbidity rate,however,due to the negative factors of economic development and other factors such as the shortage of medical resources,further efforts should be made to curb the spread of tuberculosis.

关 键 词：肺结核发病率 国内生产总值 医疗保健支出 人均可支配收入 动态响应关系 

分 类 号：R521[医药卫生—内科学]