燃气负荷预测技术综述  

Discussion on Gas Load Forecasting Technology

作　　者：郝现英 陈志光[1] 王建林 雷行 HAO Xianying;CHEN Zhiguang;WANG Jianlin;LEI Xing(School of Mechanical Engineering Tongji University;Changsha ENN Gas Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]同济大学机械与能源工程学院 [2]长沙新奥燃气有限公司

出　　处：《上海煤气》2023年第4期16-19,共4页Shanghai Gas

摘　　要：天然气的应用和发展对我国实现“双碳”目标意义重大。随着我国燃气市场规模的扩大,燃气供需变化越来越复杂,燃气负荷预测技术持续受到关注。系统介绍燃气负荷预测方法中常用的数理统计预测法、人工智能预测法及组合预测法,总结燃气负荷预测技术的发展现状及应用特点,介绍国内外燃气负荷预测软件的应用,探讨并展望目前我国燃气负荷预测技术在发展中存在的问题及未来发展方向。The application and development of natural gas are of great significance to the realization of China’s“double carbon”goal.With the expansion of China's natural gas market size,the gas supply and demand change is more and more complicated,and the gas load forecasting technology continues to attract attention.The mathematical statistics forecasting method,artificial intelligence forecasting method and combination forecasting method commonly used in gas load forecasting method are systematically introduced,the development status and application characteristics of gas load forecasting technology are summarized,the application of gas load forecasting software at home and abroad is introduced,and the existing problems and future development direction of gas load forecasting technology in China are discussed and prospected.

关 键 词：天然气 燃气负荷预测 数理统计预测法 人工智能预测法 组合预测法 负荷预测软件 

分 类 号：TU996.3[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]