园艺作物发育期和采收期模拟模型的最优模拟路径  

Optimal path of the simulation model in horticultural crop development and harvest period

作　　者：程陈 李春[3] 李文明 叶晨洋 王岳胜 赵承森 丁枫华[1] 金志凤[5] 冯利平[2] 黎贞发[3] CHENG Chen;LI Chun;LI Wenming;YE Chenyang;WANG Yuesheng;ZHAO Chengsen;DING Fenghua;JIN Zhifeng;FENG Liping;LI Zhenfa(College of Ecology,Lishui University,Lishui 323000,China;College of Resources and Environment Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;Tianjin Climate Center,Tianjin 300074,China;Lishui Meteorological Bureau,Lishui 323050,China;Zhejiang Provincial Climate Center,Hangzhou 310020,China)

机构地区：[1]丽水学院生态学院,丽水323000 [2]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [3]天津市气候中心,天津300074 [4]丽水市气象局,丽水323050 [5]浙江省气候中心,杭州310020

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2023年第12期158-167,共10页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：浙江省软科学研究计划项目(2022C35063);天津市蔬菜产业技术体系创新团队科研专项(201716);浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LTGS23D010002);浙江省大学生科技创新活动计划(新苗人才计划)项目(2022R434C021);丽水市“百名博士入百家企业人才引领计划”项目(2022002);丽水学院人才启动基金项目(6604CC01Z)。

摘　　要：为了确定通用性园艺作物发育期和采收期模拟模型的最优模拟路径,该研究获取了9 a 58茬分期播种试验观测数据,分别以黄瓜(‘津优35’和‘津盛206’)、番茄(‘瑞粉882’和‘普罗旺斯’)、芹菜(‘尤文图斯’)、菠菜(‘大叶’)、香芹(‘四季’)、郁金香(‘粉色印象’、‘白日梦’、‘艾斯米’和‘夜皇后’)、茶叶(‘龙井’)为供试材料,依据作物生长发育与关键气象因子(辐射和温度)的关系,基于4类建模方法(温差法、积温法、生理发育时间法和辐热积法)构建了园艺作物发育期和采收期模拟模型,确定了模型关键参数,并以4种方式(平均值、最值均值、中值和逐步回归)集成模拟结果,最终确定模型最优模拟路径。结果表明:1)不同时间尺度发育期和采收期模拟模型的均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)为4.85~17.01 d,归一化均方根误差(normalized root mean square error,NRMSE)为10.65%~16.31%;不同作物发育期和采收期模拟模型的RMSE为0.50~17.08 d,NRMSE为4.33%~20.24%,郁金香发育期模拟模型最优,黄瓜采收期模拟模型最优;不同模拟方法发育期和采收期模拟模型的RMSE为0.08~24.37 d,NRMSE为0.18%~54.81%。2)通过比较不同模拟方法的模拟精度,得出逐时优于逐日时间尺度,集成方法优于单一方法模拟,正弦优于线性温度响应模式,叶温优于气温温度形式,温度响应模拟需要考虑下限和上限温度。3)最优模拟路径为先选择逐时尺度、考虑生物学下限和上限温度的正弦温度响应模式和叶温温度形式构建模型,再选择集成法优化发育期(中值集成)和采收期(逐步回归集成)模型。研究结果为指导园艺作物智慧生产管理和高效利用农业资源方面提供理论基础和技术支撑。A universally optimal path can greatly contribute to the simulation models in the horticultural crop development and harvest period,in order to efficiently utilize the agricultural resources during intelligent management.In this study,an optimal horticultural crop development and harvesting period simulation model was established to evaluate the relationship between crop growth and development,and the key meteorological factors(radiation and temperature).Four types of modeling methods were selected(temperature difference,accumulated temperature,physiological development time,product of thermal effectiveness,and photosynthetically active radiation).The experimental materials were taken as the cucumber('Jinyou 35'and'Jinsheng 206'),tomato('Ruifen 882'and'Provence'),celery('Juventus'),spinach('Daye'),parsley('Siji'),tulip('Pink impression','Daydream','Esmee'and'Queen of Night'),and tea('Longjing').The observation data was obtained for the 58 groups of sowing stages over nine years from 2013 to 2022(38 groups of early sowing and late sowing data were used to establish the model,and 21 groups of intermediate sowing data were used to the validate model).The key parameters of the model were then determined to integrate the simulation.Four approaches were used(average integration,maximum average integration,median integration,and stepwise regression integration)to ultimately determine the optimal simulation path for the model.The simulation was also conducted to clarify the significant impact of seasonal production capacity,stubble allocation,utilization efficiency of light and heat resources,and human factors on the actual cultivation of infinitely growing crops(cucumber,tomato,and tea)in the development period.The important model parameters were optimized in the development and harvest periods.A series of experiments were then carried out to verify the model.There were some outstanding features of the model as follows:To take the radiation and air temperature as the main driving variables,TE included two kinds of tempe

关 键 词：模型 作物 发育期 采收期 最优模拟路径 时间尺度 方法集成 逐步回归 

分 类 号：S609[农业科学—园艺学] S162.5S363