南北疆规模化牧场奶牛21天妊娠率及相关指标线性回归方程的建立与应用  

Establishment and Application of Linear Regression Equations for 21-day Pregnancy Rate and Related Indicators of Dairy Cows in Large-scale Pasture in Northern and Southern Xinjiang

作　　者：王志伟 李智星 王建强 李海军 孟毅 彭夏雨 魏勇 WANG Zhiwei;LI Zhixing;WANG Jianqiang;LI Haijun;MENG Yi;PENG Xiayu;WEI Yong(Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.,Ltd.,Urumuqi Xinjiang 832063;Xinjiang Tianrun Shahe Animal Husbandry Co.,Ltd.,Akesu Xinjiang 843100;College of Animal Science and Technology,Shihezi University,Shihezi Xinjiang 832003)

机构地区：[1]新疆天润乳业股份有限公司,新疆乌鲁木齐830022 [2]新疆天润沙河牧业有限公司,新疆阿克苏842008 [3]石河子大学动物科技学院,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《中国乳业》2023年第8期50-56,共7页China Dairy

基　　金：基于基因组选择的规模化奶牧场高效繁育技术体系集成示范与应用推广(2021DB016);万头规模化奶牛养殖全产业链提质增效技术集成与示范(SR202101)。

摘　　要：[目的]建立一种较直观、快速、便捷的繁殖评价方法,为高效奶牛繁育进行有效评价提供科学理论支撑。[方法]对南北疆不同养殖模式的6个规模化牧场进行相关繁殖数据收集与整理,并分析21天妊娠率与发情揭发率、受胎率之间的相关性,建立以发情揭发率、受胎率为变量的线性回归方程,对影响奶牛怀孕的关键因素进行全面客观评估。[结果]成母牛21天妊娠率与发情揭发率、受胎率显著正相关(P<0.01),并建立相关回归方程,青年母牛:Y=-0.532+0.906X+0.599Z,R^(2)=0.990;成母牛:Y=-0.282+0.701X+0.415Z,R^(2)=992(其中Y为21天妊娠率,X为受胎率,Z为发情揭发率)。[结论]繁育人员可借助回归方程预测相关指标,快速、准确、便捷地在发情揭发率、受胎率两个关键性指标上提升,为牧场月度繁殖评估提供准确依据,为实现牧场高效奶牛繁育提供切实可行的路径及方案。[Objective]To establish a more intuitive,rapid and convenient breeding evaluation method to provide scientific theoretical support for efficient breeding evaluation of dairy cows.[Method]Relevant reproductive data were collected and collated from 6 large-scale pastures with different breeding modes in southern and northern Xinjiang,and the correlation between 21-day pregnancy rate,estrus disclosure rate and conception rate was analyzed.A linear regression equation with estrus disclosure rate and conception rate as variables was established,and the key factors affecting the pregnancy of dairy cows were comprehensively and objectively evaluated.[Result]The 21-day pregnancy rate of adult cows was positively correlated with estrus detection rate and conception rate(P<0.01),and the correlation regression equation was established.For young cows,Y=-0.532+0.906X+0.599Z,R^(2)=0.990.Adult cows:Y=-0.282+0.701X+0.415Z,R^(2)=992(where Y is the 21-day gestation rate,X is the conception rate,and Z is the estrus detection rate).[Conclusion]Breeders can use the regression equation to predict the relevant indicators,quickly,accurately and conveniently improve the two key indicators of estrus detection rate and conception rate,providing an accurate basis for the monthly breeding assessment of pasture,and providing a feasible path and program for realizing efficient breeding of dairy cows in pasture.

关 键 词：21天妊娠率 发情揭发率 受胎率 线性回归方程 

分 类 号：S823[农业科学—畜牧学]