中国机电产品对“一带一路”沿线国家的出口潜力分析——基于拓展引力模型的实证研究  

An Analysis of Export Potential of China's Mechanical and Electrical Products to Countries Along"the Belt and Road"——An Empirical Study Based on the Expansion Gravity Model

作　　者：张志彬[1] 陈卓 ZHANG Zhibin;CHEN Zhuo(Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《新疆财经》2023年第4期70-80,共11页Finance & Economics of Xinjiang

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“数字技术条件下全球服务业价值链的嵌入、升级和治理研究”(22BJY046);湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目“基于激励相容的城市环境治理长效机制与政策体系研究”(20A189)。

摘　　要：文章基于2005—2019年“一带一路”沿线61个国家样本数据,分析中国机电产品对“一带一路”沿线国家出口的现状,并通过拓展的引力模型实证研究中国机电产品对“一带一路”沿线国家出口的影响因素及出口潜力。研究发现:第一,中国机电产品对“一带一路”沿线国家的出口规模不断增长,在市场类别上,主要出口到与中国机电产品贸易互补性较强的国家,在产品类别上,主要以电器电子、机械设备等中技术机电产品为主;第二,中国国内生产总值、进口国国内生产总值、进口国政治与社会稳定水平对中国对“一带一路”沿线国家机电产品出口具有显著的促进效应,两国人口规模比例则具有不显著的抑制效应;第三,在中国机电产品对“一带一路”沿线61国的出口潜力测算中,有28国属于“潜力再造型”、9国属于“潜力开拓型”、24国属于“潜力巨大型”。今后应持续深入推进“一带一路”倡议、强化机电产业显示性比较优势、加大企业资源整合和科研投入力度,助推中国经济高质量发展。Based on the sample data of 61 countries along"the Belt and Road"from 2005 to 2019,this paper analyzes the current situation of China's export of mechanical and electrical products to the countries along"the Belt and Road",and empirically studies the influencing factors and export potential of China's export of mechanical and electrical products to the countries along"the Belt and Road"through the expanded gravity model.The findings are as follows:First,the export scale of China's mechanical and electrical products to the countries along"the Belt and Road"has been growing continuously.In terms of market categories,China's mechanical and electrical products are mainly exported to countries with strong complementarity with China's mechanical and electrical products trade,and in the product category,mainly electrical,electronic,mechanical equipment and other technical mechanical and electrical products.Second,China's GDP,importing country's GDP,importing country's political and social stability have a significant promoting effect on China's export of mechanical and electrical products to countries along"the Belt and Road",while the population size ratio of the two countries has an insignificant inhibiting effect.Third,among the export potential of China's mechanical and electrical products to 61 countries along"the Belt and Road",28 countries belong to potential re-modeling,9 countries belong to pioneering potential,and 24 countries belong to great potential.In the future,we should continue to further promote"the Belt and Road"Initiative,strengthen the demonstrated comparative advantages of the electromechanical industry,strengthen the integration of enterprise resources and investment in scientific research,and promote the high-quality development of the Chinese economy.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 机电产品贸易 引力模型 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]