基于集聚度与灰色预测模型的我国疾病预防控制中心人员配置发展分析  

The development of the personnel allocation of the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control in China based on the aggregation degree and grey prediction model

作　　者：王卫平 安洪庆[2] WANG Wei-ping;AN Hong-qing(Kuiwen District Centre for Social Security,Weifang,Shandong 261000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]奎文区社会保险事业中心,山东潍坊261000 [2]潍坊医学院公共卫生学院

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第16期3012-3017,3024,共7页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目(20YJCZH002);中国学位与研究生教育学会课题(2020MSA105);山东省高等医学教育研究中心规划课题(YJKT202126)。

摘　　要：目的从资源集聚度的角度分析我国及我国不同地区、省份疾病预防控制中心人员配置公平性及发展趋势,为疾病预防控制中心人力资源合理配置提供数据支撑。方法利用集聚度,从人口、地理、经济3个维度对2010—2020年数据进行分析和比较,并利用灰色预测模型进行预测。结果2010—2020年间,全国疾病预防控制中心人员数量年同比增长率仅2013年与2020年为正增长,其余皆为负增长;2020年,全国共有7个省份疾病预防控制中心人员集聚度小于1,且大部分处于人口稀疏地区;有9个省份疾病预防控制中心人员集聚度与人口集聚度差值小于0,且大部分处于人口密集地区;我国疾病预防控制中心人员集聚度与人口集聚度、经济集聚度皆呈正相关(r=0.984/0.976,P<0.05);疾病预防控制中心人员集聚度及其与人口集聚度差值预测显示,我国除西部地区呈上升趋势外,中部以及东地区均呈下降趋势,且在2026年出现风险点。结论我国疾病预防控制中心人员总量发展滞缓,区域配置均衡性存在差异、发展趋势不协调;建议因地制宜,加强人口、经济与地理等各方面资源整合,使得疾病预防控制中心人员配置更加趋于合理。Objective To analyze the staffing and development status of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in China and different regions and provinces from the perspective of resource concentration,so as to provide data support for the rational allocation of human resources in Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Methods The data from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed and compared from three dimensions of population,geography and economy by using agglomeration degree,and the grey prediction model was used for prediction.Results From 2010 to 2020,the year-on-year growth rate of the number of staff in the National Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was only positive in 2013 and 2020,and the rest were negative;In 2020,there would be a total of 7 provincial centers for disease prevention and control with less than 1 staff concentration,and most of them will be located in sparsely populated areas;The difference between personnel concentration and population concentration of disease prevention and control centers in 9 provinces was less than 0,and most of them were in densely populated areas;There was a positive correlation between the degree of personnel concentration,population concentration and economic concentration in China’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(r=0.984/0.976,P<0.05);The CDC forecast of the degree of concentration of people and the difference between the degree of concentration of people and the degree of concentration of population showed that the central and eastern areas of our country showed a downward trend except the western areas,and there were risk points in 2026.Conclusion The development of the total number of staff in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in China is slow,and there are differences in the balance of regional allocation,and the development trend is uncoordinated;It is suggested to adjust measures to local conditions,strengthen the integration of resources in population,economy and geography,etc.,so as to make the staffing of CDC more reasonable.

关 键 词：集聚度 灰色预测模型 疾病预防控制中心 人员配置 

分 类 号：R192.9[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]