气候变化对清江未来径流及隔河岩电站发电的影响  

Impact of future climate change scenarios on long-term runoff change and Geheyan Hydropower Station power generation in Qingjiang River

作　　者：孟虹池 李英海[1,2] 欧阳硕 郭家力[1,2] 杨苑 兰回归 MENG Hongchi;LI Yinghai;OUYANG Shuo;GUO Jiali;YANG Yuan;LAN Huigui(College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Engineering Research Center of Eco-environment in Three Gorges Reservoir Region of Ministry of Education,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Hydrological Bureau of Yangtze River Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学生态环境库区教育部工程研究中心,湖北宜昌443002 [3]长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2023年第4期42-51,共10页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52179018);湖北省教育厅科学技术研究项目(D20201201)。

摘　　要：以历史径流为依据的清江梯级调度规则难以适应气候变化需求,必然对梯级水库的安全稳定运行和兴利效益发挥带来影响。基于清江流域空间数据和观测数据,采用SWAT模型,运用统计降尺度方法模拟3种情景下流域内各站点的未来气象数据,进而对径流进行模拟,并对隔河岩水电站发电量变化进行分析。结果表明:未来时期RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5共3种气候情景下,清江流域出口长阳站多年平均径流呈上升趋势,年均径流增幅分别为6.0%、8.7%和13.2%;隔河岩水电站在上述3种情景下近期(2020—2045年)、中期(2046—2070年)和远期(2071—2100年)多年平均发电量增幅分别为3.4%~5.1%、7.7%~10.3%和13.4%~16.0%。该研究可为气候变化条件下清江流域水资源管理与隔河岩水电站发电调度运行提供参考。The cascade regulation of the Qingjiang River based on historical runoff is difficult to adapt to the needs of climate change,which will inevitably affect the safe and stable operation of cascade reservoirs and the development of profits.The SWAT model was built based on the spatial data and observation data of the Qingjiang Basin,and the future meteorological data of each station in the basin under the three scenarios were simulated by using the statistical downscale model.Then the runoff was simulated,and the power generation change of the Geheyan Hydropower station was analyzed.The results show that the simulated annual average runoff of the Changyang Station under three Climate scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the future is on the rise,and the annual average runoff increase is 6.0%,8.7%and 13.2%,respectively.Under the above three scenarios,the average generation capacity of the Geheyan Hydropower Station increases by 3.4%~5.1%,7.7%~10.3%and 13.4%~16.0%in 2020-2045,2046-2070 and 2071-2100,respectively.This study can provide a theoretical reference for water resources management and power generation operation of the Geheyan Hydropower Station in the Qingjiang River Basin under climate change.

关 键 词：气候变化 SWAT模型 统计降尺度模型 水文响应 水电站调度 清江流域 

分 类 号：TV212.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]