河南省“十四五”期间农机总动力预测研究  

Research on prediction of total power of agricultural machinery in Henan Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan

作　　者：丁力 吴辉 徐宇飞 王媛 何勋[1] 王万章[1] DING Li;WU Hui;XU Yufei;WANG Yuan;HE Xun;WANG Wanzhang(College of Mechanical&Electrical Engineering of Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450002,China;Department of Agricultural Machinery,Agricultural and Rural Affairs Office of Henan Province,Zhengzhou 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学机电工程学院,河南郑州450002 [2]河南省农业农村厅农机处,河南郑州450000

出　　处：《河南农业大学学报》2023年第4期607-614,684,共9页Journal of Henan Agricultural University

基　　金：现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金项目(CARS-03);河南省科技攻关项目(222102110032)。

摘　　要：【目的】提高河南省农机总动力预测模型的精度,获得更加可靠的预测结果,为河南省“十四五”农业机械现代化及其发展规划提供支撑。【方法】基于河南省2017—2020年农机总动力的相关数据,通过建立预测模型,对“十四五”期间河南省农机总动力进行预测。针对线性回归模型存在的多重共线性问题,以及灰色模型只能表示单一序列的指数增长趋势的问题,建立了主成分回归预测模型和灰色回归预测模型,对两种模型预测结果精度进行对比分析。【结果】主成分回归预测模型和灰色回归预测模型的平均相对误差分别为0.0033%和0.0030%,灰色回归预测模型的预测精度较高。通过构建的灰色回归模型对未来时期河南省农机总动力进行预测,预测值分别为10538.81×10^(4)、10591.08×10^(4)、10627.67×10^(4)、10653.28×10^(4)、10670.21×10^(4) kW。灰色回归预测模型对2021年河南省农机总动力的预测值与实际值相对误差为1.04%,误差值较小。【结论】通过模型预测数据可以看出,“十四五”期间,河南省农机总动力增长趋于平缓,部分落后农机具将逐步被农机市场淘汰,大马力、效率高、功能更全面的机具将填补这部分市场缺口,河南省农机发展将进入全面的高质量、高效发展阶段。【Objective】This study was conducted to improve the accuracy of the prediction model of the total power of agricultural machinery in Henan Province,obtain more reliable prediction results,and provide support for the modernization and development planning of agricultural machinery in Henan Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan.【Method】Based on the relevant data of total power of agricultural machinery in Henan Province from 2017 to 2020,this paper forecasts the total power of agricultural machinery in Henan Province during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period by establishing a prediction model for the total power of agricultural machinery in Henan Province.Aiming at the multiple collinearity problem of linear regression model and the problem that grey model can only represent the exponential growth trend of a single series,the principal component regression prediction model and grey regression prediction model were established,and the precision of the prediction results of the two models was compared and analyzed.【Result】The average relative errors of the principal component regression prediction model and the grey regression prediction model were 0.0033%and 0.0030%,respectively.The prediction accuracy of the grey regression prediction model was higher.The power of agricultural machinery in Henan Province in the future was predicted by the grey regression model,and the predicted values were 10538.81×10^(4),10591.08×10^(4),10627.67×10^(4),10653.28×10^(4) and 10670.21×10^(4) kW.The relative error between the predicted value and the actual value of agricultural machinery power in Henan Province by the grey regression prediction model in 2021 is 1.04%,which is smaller.【Conclusion】It can be seen from the model prediction data that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the total power growth of agricultural machinery in Henan Province tends to be flat.Some backward agricultural machinery will be gradually eliminated from the agricultural machinery market.Machines with higher operating efficiency and

关 键 词：农机总动力 预测模型 主成分回归模型 灰色回归模型 

分 类 号：S220.2[农业科学—农业机械化工程]